morning market picks for November 4, 2009

Commodity Pick Report

Morning Call: November 4, 2009

"The money's made in the sitting and the waiting, not the trading." - Jesse Livermore

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Welcome to Commodity Pick Report!

Commodity Pick Report gives you my best hand picked trades for each week. The trades below are classified according to their probability of success, with low risk trades having the greatest probability of working out and high risk trades the least regardless of risk amounts.

There are also trade management suggestions for open positions. Profit targets are offered for your consideration but unless specified trades will be managed according to the commentary. I would advise you to adjust recommendations to suit your own circumstances.

Remember that making money in trading does not require you to take numerous trades; rather the best way to make money is to take multiple contracts on the most promising trades. All trade recommendations are written for single contracts; however you might consider trading multiple contracts whenever your account, and risk tolerance allow.

Note: CPR trades do not account for slippage; therefore your actual fills might be slightly different than those reported here.

Here's to your success!

Erich
erich@tradershelpingtraders.com

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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ9
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FLAT

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December British Pound BPZ9
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FLAT

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December Canadian Dollar CDZ9
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It's a nice setup off support; it's just a shame that the ranges are sooo big and expensive. I'll be looking to buy a rally above Tuesday's high.

If December Canadian Dollar opens at or below 9410
BUY 2 December Canadian Dollar at 9413 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 9187 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2260 per contract
Profit Target: 9541 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1280 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

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December EuroFX ECZ9
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We got gapped on the open thereby voiding our trade. I'm standing aside for Wednesday as things are looking a little scary.

FLAT for Wednesday.

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December Japanese Yen JYZ9
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Believe it or not the best place for our stops, if we're trying to maximize our trailing potential, is breakeven. But don't let that be you're only guide. There is a lot of money in play here!

CONTINUATION of Long 2 December Japanese Yen at 109.43 (October 28)
Exit Stop: 109.43 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

Profit Target on 1st contract: 110.43 (October 29)
Approximate Profit: $1250 per contract

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December Swiss Franc SFZ9
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FLAT

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December US Dollar Index DXZ9
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We got gapped on our USD trade as well and by the looks of things right now it might have been a good thing!

FLAT for Wednesday.

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2: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September Eurodollar EDU0
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FLAT

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December 30 Year T-Bond USZ9
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FLAT

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December mini-DOW YMZ9
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FLAT

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December mini-S&P ESZ9
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FLAT

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3: GRAINS
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November Canola RSX9
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FLAT

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December Corn CZ9
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FLAT

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December Oats OZ9
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FLAT

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December Soybean Meal SMZ9
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FLAT

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December Soybean Oil BOZ9
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FLAT

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January Soybean SX0
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FLAT

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December Wheat WZ9
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FLAT

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4: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCJ0
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FLAT

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December Live Cattle LCZ9
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FLAT

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December Lean Hogs LHZ9
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I can almost guarantee that Hogs will begin a pullback for Wednesday so feel free to jam that exit stop up much tighter than my suggestion! My suggested stop is only to try and capture a longer term move, but of course we never really know when those are….

CONTINUATION of Long 2 December Lean Hogs at 5517 (October 27)
Exit Stop: 5620 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

Profit Target on 1st contract: 5677 (October 29)
Approximate Profit: $640 per contract

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5: METALS
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December Copper HGZ9
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FLAT

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December Gold GCZQ9
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FLAT

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December mini-Silver YIZ9
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FLAT

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6: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ9
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I'm not panicking about our Cocoa trade (yet) but would dearly like to see the bears come back into the market Wednesday.

CONTINUATION of Short 2 December Cocoa at 3253 (November 2)
Exit Stop: 3357 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1040 per contract
Profit Target: 3177 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $760 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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December Coffee KCZ9
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FLAT

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December Cotton CTZ9
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I'm liking the Cotton trade better all the time, but the lack of commitment could be a problem. Markets are allowed to consolidate but they also have to move!

If December Cotton opens at or above 6610
SELL 2 December Cotton at 6605 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 6810 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1025 per contract
Profit Target: 6500 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $525 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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November OJ OJX9
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FLAT

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March Sugar SBH0
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FLAT

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Commodity Pick Report is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 - 2009 Traders Helping Traders.net.

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(250)748-9242 (Pacific Time Zone)

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My Lawyer Made Me Say
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Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that Commodity Pick Report believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any dollar amount quoted is exclusive of commissions and fees.

CFTC Rule 4.41
RISK DISCLOSURE!

Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.

Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to ensure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability.

By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.

For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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