Morning Market Picks for July 22, 2009

by Erich Senft on July 29, 2009

CURRENCIES

September Canadian Dollar CDU9
FLAT – Too bad we got gapped; we would’ve hit our profit target Tuesday! Yes, these are “sour grapes”.

September Japanese Yen JYU9
We’ve still got the Yen trade in play for Wednesday. Momentum needs to pick up if the bulls are going to find our entry.

If September Japanese Yen opens at or below 107.50
BUY September Japanese Yen at 107.63 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 105.79 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2300 per contract
Profit Target: 108.93 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1625 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH

FINANCIALS/INDICES

March Eurodollar EDH0
FLAT – The ED decided the run wasn’t over yet which negates any selling we might have had in mind.

GRAINS

November Canola RSX9
Watch List – I still think we had the right idea here and am looking for another opportunity to get in.

September Soybean Oil BOU9
Is the pullback over? I think it might be as Bean Oil shows us resistance. I’m a seller below Tuesday’s low.

If September Bean Oil opens at or above 3450
SELL September Bean Oil at 3449 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 3573 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $744 per contract
Profit Target: 3367 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $492 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

September Wheat WU9
I’ll look at putting on a full sized contract for this one, but consider a mini-contract (or two) if this is too expensive.

Now that Wheat’s showing resistance we’re sellers again with the trend. We got the momentum shift and indicator resistance on RSI so it’s looking pretty promising.

If September Wheat opens at or above 528
SELL September Wheat at 527 3/4 (stop)(day)

Exit Stop: 545 3/4 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $900 per contract
Profit Target: 514 3/4 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $650 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

MEATS

August Feeder Cattle FCQ9
Watch List – Feeder’s bull run might be nearing it’s end. Look for support near 101.50. Right now I think we’ll see a failure there, but we’ll see how it develops.

METALS

September Copper HGU9
I’ve planned a VERY short term move in Copper as the market continued to hold resistance for Tuesday. This means there is a strong likelihood that we will see a pullback of at least 50% of the last run. I’m not greedy though – especially with a market like this – and am planning to get out ASAP!

If September Copper opens at or above 243.00
SELL September Copper at 242.00 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 250.45 (stop)(day)
Approximate Risk: $2112 per contract
Profit Target: 235.60 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1600 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

SOFTS

September Coffee KCU9
Long time between Coffee trades, huh? This one’s a bit of a stretch to boot as we don’t have confirmed resistance yet. But did you see how Tuesday’s highs held the 123.40 -.50 line? I’m looking for a move lower starting Wednesday especially since the market’s overbought at this point.

If September Coffee opens at or above 121.00
SELL September Coffee at 120.75 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: $123.80 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1143 per contract
Profit Target: 116.60 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1556 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH

October Sugar SBV9
Sugar tagged use for a small loss but I still think we had the right idea.

COMPLETION of Short October Sugar at 1739 (July 16)
Exit Stop: 1791
Approximate Loss: $582 per contract

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