Morning Market Picks for July 21, 2009

by Erich Senft on July 29, 2009

CURRENCIES

September Canadian Dollar CDU9
FLAT – We definitely had the right idea with the Canadian Dollar trade; however the market gapped us on the open voiding the trade. I’m sitting on my hands until the next sign of resistance.

September Japanese Yen JYU9

I seriously considered tightening up the entry on this trade; however I think I’ll leave well enough alone as we’re playing a strong line of resistance for the entry. I have to admit that Monday’s small range was very tempting though!

If September Japanese Yen opens at or below 107.50
BUY September Japanese Yen at 107.63 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 105.79 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2300 per contract
Profit Target: 108.93 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1625 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH

FINANCIALS/INDICES

March Eurodollar EDH0
The Eurodollar never filled our position for Monday so we’ll run it again for Tuesday.

If the March Eurodollar opens at or above 99000
SELL March Eurodollar at 98900 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 99040 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $350 per contract
Profit Target: 98710 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $475 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

September mini-DOW YMU9
FLAT – The bulls were much stronger than I thought and never filled our short position. That’s okay though. As they say “no harm, no foul”.

GRAINS

November Canola RSX9
Canola’s bearish momentum showed up too late as prices drifted high enough to find our exit stop taking us out of the trade.

COMPLETION of Short November Canola at 420.5 (July 16)
Exit Stop: 430.0
Approximate Loss: $190 per contract

September mini-Wheat @YWU9
Wheat gapped us on the open voiding our trade; however I think we’ll have another chance at this one in a day or two if support sets in.

SOFTS

October Sugar SBV9
Sugar’s making us sweat the trade and right now it doesn’t look all that promising. Brace yourselves for Tuesday.

CONTINUATION of Shoft October Sugar at 1739 (July 16)
Exit Stop: 1791 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $582 per contract
Profit Target: 1691 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $537 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH

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