Morning Market Picks for July 10, 2009

by Erich Senft on July 19, 2009

CURRENCIES

September Canadian Dollar CDU9
Still looking for the bearish momentum to come back into the market all this sideways action has me a little concerned.

CONTINUATION of Short September Canadian Dollar at 8547 (July 8)
Exit Stop: 8733 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1860 per contract
Profit Target: 8287 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $2600 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

September Japanese Yen JYU9
Watch List – I love to see a pause after a big day. One more consolidation day and I think we’ll be ready to buy.

FINANCIALS/INDICES

September mini-DOW YMU9
Who can resistance such a cute little support bar? I like it because the tight range makes it possible for me to position trade it. If you’re daytrading I’d be giving preference to the short side.

If September mini-Dow opens at or above 8070
SELL September mini-Dow at 8069 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 8213 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $720 per contract
Profit Target: 7961 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $540 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

GRAINS

September mini- Corn @YCU9
Watch List – Hmmm, we got support but is looks more like a swing point now. I think I’ll hold off until over the weekend.

September Oats OU9
Here’s a market we don’t trade very often, but we’ve got a fine looking setup for Friday. You know it has to be half decent for me to consider trading it on a Friday!

Did you notice the bundle of hits on the recent lows? Did you also see how Thursday’s session stalled? That’s a good clue that “something” will happen Friday. Given how the support’s been holding I’ll look at buying.

If September Oats opens at or below 216
BUY September Oats at 216 3/4 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 209 1/4 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $375 per contract
Profit Target: 230 1/4 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $675 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

September Soybean Meal SMU9
Watch List – I thought about selling Bean Oil for Friday but I think I’ll wait until Monday.

MEATS

August Feeder Cattle FCQ9
FLAT – There’s the support coming in, but at over $1000 it’s a little too steep to cover.

August Live Cattle LCQ9
Watch List – Ditto.

August Lean Hogs LHQ9
A terrific rally gives us a bit of breathing room. Bring exit stops under Thursday’s low.

CONTINUATION of Long August Lean Hogs at 6182 (July 6)
Exit Stop: 6060 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $490 per contract
Profit Target: 6492 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1240 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate
METALS

August Gold GCZQ9
I can’t believe we didn’t get filled on our profit target in the night session. Keep your fingers crossed that we get out of the trade before the weekend!

CONTINUATION of Short August Gold at 917.5 (July 8)
Exit Stop; 932.5 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1500 per contract
Profit Target: 904.5 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1300 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

SOFTS

October Sugar SBV9
Not the best trade for a Friday but worth a try off the failed support rally from Wednesday/Thursday. I’m trying to keep the trade relatively tight so we might get our profit target Friday if all goes well.

If October Sugar opens at or above 8070
SELL October Sugar at 8069 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 8213 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $720 per contract
Profit Target: 7961 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $540 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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