Commodity Pick Report
Morning Call: December 10, 2009
“The money’s made in the sitting and the waiting, not the trading.” – Jesse Livermore
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Welcome to Commodity Pick Report!
Commodity Pick Report gives you my best hand picked trades for each week. The trades below are classified according to their probability of success, with low risk trades having the greatest probability of working out and high risk trades the least regardless of risk amounts.
There are also trade management suggestions for open positions. Profit targets are offered for your consideration but unless specified trades will be managed according to the commentary. I would advise you to adjust recommendations to suit your own circumstances.
Remember that making money in trading does not require you to take numerous trades; rather the best way to make money is to take multiple contracts on the most promising trades. All trade recommendations are written for single contracts; however you might consider trading multiple contracts whenever your account, and risk tolerance allow.
Note: CPR trades do not account for slippage; therefore your actual fills might be slightly different than those reported here.
Here’s to your success!
Erich
erich@tradershelpingtraders.com
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ9
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Watch List – The AD gave us support for Wednesday; however I think it will be short lived. We have a head ‘n shoulders style formation developing, and while the market hasn’t committed to the downside yet, I think it’s inevitable.
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December British Pound BPZ9
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FLAT
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ9
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FLAT
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December EuroFX ECZ9
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FLAT
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December Japanese Yen JYZ9
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FLAT
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December Swiss Franc SFZ9
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FLAT
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December US Dollar Index DXZ9
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FLAT
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2: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September Eurodollar EDU0
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It’s not a red bar; however the market was not able to put in a new high, so it’s the next best thing. I’m bringing in my entry a bit and shorting below Tuesday’s low. If you wanted to be more aggressive on the trade consider selling Wednesday’s low instead.
If September Eurodollar opens at or above 99.050
SELL 2 September Eurodollar at 99.047 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 99.200 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $382 per contract
Profit Target: 98.860 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $467 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December 30 Year T-Bond USZ9
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FLAT
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December mini-DOW YMZ9
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FLAT
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December mini-S&P ESZ9
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FLAT
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3: GRAINS
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January Canola RSF0
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The problem with a struggling market is that it is prone to reverse anytime, and this is what we might be seeing in Canola. We’re not stopped out yet, but it doesn’t look very good.
BUY 2 January Canola at 4100 (November 25)
Exit Stop: 4080 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $40 per contract
Profit Target: 4200 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $200 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH
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March Corn CH0
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FLAT
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March Oats OH0
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The “best” place for the trailing stop is above Monday’s high; however if you’re feeling apprehensive you could bring the remaining stop to breakeven for Thursday.
CONTINUATION of Short March Oats at 259 3/4 (December 3)
Exit Stop: 261 1/4 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $75 per contract
1st Profit Target: 253 1/4 (December)
Approximate Profit: $325 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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March Soybean Meal SMH0
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FLAT
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March Soybean Oil BOH0
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FLAT
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January Soybean SX0
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FLAT
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March Wheat WH0
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Watch List – We should see support come into the market for Thursday. If we get it we can start looking for resistance and another chance to sell.
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4: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCJ0
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FLAT
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February Live Cattle LCG0
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FLAT
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February Lean Hogs LHG0
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Did you see how Hog prices held old resistance/support? This is our “whisper” and cue to plan a buy on a rally off support.
If February Lean Hogs opens at or below 6640
BUY 2 February Lean Hogs at 6645 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 6485 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $640 per contract
Profit Target: 6755 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $440 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: METALS
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March Copper HGH0
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FLAT
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February Gold GCG0
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FLAT
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March mini-Silver YIH0
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FLAT
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6: SOFTS
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March Cocoa CCH0
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FLAT
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March Coffee KCH0
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FLAT
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March Cotton CTH0
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For better or worse we sold Cotton Wednesday. The high closing price is not a good sign for a short position, but the heavy resistance at 7500 still looms above.
CONTINUATION of Short 2 March Cotton at 7360 (December 10)
Exit Stop: 7525 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $825 per contract
Profit Target: 7255 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $525 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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January OJ OJF0
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FLAT
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March Sugar SBH0
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We can tweak the Sugar stops a little more for Thursday; however we need to see the bears get serious and right quick. This lollygagging only makes it easier for the bulls to run up prices.
CONTINUATION of Short 2 March Sugar at 2257 (December 4)
Exit Stop: 2273 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $179 per contract
Profit Target: 2183 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $828 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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Commodity Pick Report is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 – 2009 Traders Helping Traders.net.
10 – 6078 Truesdale Street, Duncan, British Columbia, V9L 0B4
(250)748-9242 (Pacific Time Zone)
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My Lawyer Made Me Say
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Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that Commodity Pick Report believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any dollar amount quoted is exclusive of commissions and fees.
CFTC Rule 4.41
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to ensure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability.
By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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