Morning Market Picks – February 2, 2010

by Erich Senft on February 2, 2010

Position Trades
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1: CURRENCIES
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March British Pound BPH0
———-

The Pound had no problem finding our profit target to start this week. The problem now is the strong support which is likely to bounce the market, at least for the short term.

So what do we do? If you want to protect more profit bring the stops at least to breakeven. If you can stand the risk, and what to try and capture a bigger move, bring the stops in above Friday’s high.

SELL 2 March British Pound at 160.49 (January 29)
Exit Stop: 161.83 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $837 per contract
Profit Target: 159.03 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $912 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

———-
March Canadian Dollar CDH0
———-

Do you see how the CD is reacting to old support? In this situation we have a little more room and can bring our stops in a little tighter so as to protect more profit.

CONTINUATION of Short March Canadian Dollar at 9687 (January 20)
Exit Stop: 9451 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

1st Profit Target: 9587 (January 20)
Approximate Profit: $1000 per contract

———-
March Japanese Yen JYH0
———-

The Yen flirted with our exit stop but never got low enough to tag us. With the higher close I’m hoping for a little breathing room going into the weekend.

CONTINUATION of Long March Japanese Yen at 108.63 (January 11)
Exit Stop: 110.37 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

1st Profit Target: 109.83 (January 12)
Approximate Profit: $1500 per contract

———-
March US Dollar Index DXH0
———

That old resistance that I was worried about seems to be influencing the market a bit; therefore it’s time to get more aggressive with our stop placement.

CONTINUATION of Long 2 March US Dollar Index at 7773 (January 19)
Exit Stop: 7897 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

1st Profit Target: 7853 (January 20)
Approximate Profit: $800 per contract

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2: FINANCIALS
====================
———-
September Eurodollar EDU0
———-

The ED trade is looking a little more promising now that the market has shown us resistance. I’ll continue the same trade for Tuesday.

If September Eurodollar opens at or above 992700
SELL 2 September Eurodollar at 992600 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 993900 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $325 per contract
Profit Target: 991300 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $325 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

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3: GRAINS
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———-
January Canola RSF0
———-

Canola showed support to start the week, so I’ll re-run the same trade for Tuesday.

If March Canola opens at or below 3790
BUY 2 March Canola at 3800 (stop)(limit)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 3730 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $140 per contract
Profit Target: 3900 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $200 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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4: MEATS
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———-
April Live Cattle LCJ0
———-

Cattle might end up breaking support after all, but I haven’t given up on the bulls just yet. I’ll give the order one more day.

If April Live Cattle opens at or below 9000
BUY 2 April Live Cattle at 9015 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 8860 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $620 per contract
Profit Target: 9122 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $430 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
———-
April Lean Hogs LHJ0
———-

Now that’s the way I like to start the week! Hogs fell of in a big way as old support crumbled beneath the market. Bring stops at least to 7010, although I think we could see prices decline lower still

CONTINUATION of Short April Lean Hogs at 7135 (January 25)
Exit Stop: 7010 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

1st Profit Target: 6920 (January 26)
Approximate Profit: $860 per contract

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6: SOFTS
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———-
March Cotton CTH0
———-

Oh baby! Cotton fell off sharply here as well. Bring exit stops in a bit and with a bit of luck we’ll see prices continue lower for Tuesday as well.

CONTINUATION Short 2 March Cotton at 7035 (January 25)
Exit Stop: 7005 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract

1st Profit Target: 6905 (January 27)
Approximate Profit: $650 per contract

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Day Trading Support and Resistance Lines
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———
March mini-DOW YMH0
———-

Support and Resistance Lines:

10000
10055
10115
10250
10315
10380
10470
10590

———-
March mini-S&P ESH0
———-

Support and Resistance Lines:

1070.00
1082.00
1087.00
1103.00
1108.50
1115.50
1126.00
1138.50

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