December 8, 2009

by Erich Senft on December 8, 2009

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2: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September Eurodollar EDU0
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We might be a touch early here, but I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end of the bull run… at least for the short term. Now that we have support we have somewhere to sell below.

If September Eurodollar opens at or above 989500
SELL 2 September Eurodollar at 989400 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 991100 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $425 per contract
Profit Target: 987800 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $400 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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3: GRAINS
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January Canola RSF0
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More resistance to start the week. Time to bring the exit stops in a bit.

BUY 2 January Canola at 4100 (November 25)
Exit Stop: 4080 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $40 per contract
Profit Target: 4200 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $200 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Oats moved enough that we can adjust the exit stop a bit for Tuesday. We’re in better shape, but we’re not in the clear yet.

CONTINUATION of Short 2 March Oats at 259 3/4 (December 3)
Exit Stop: 264 1/4 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $225 per contract
Profit Target: 253 1/4 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $325 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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4: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCJ0
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I’ll re-run the Feeder Cattle trade for Tuesday even though the market has a much more bearish posture.

If January Feeder Cattle opens at or below 9400
BUY 2 January Feeder Cattle at 9407 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 9307 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $500 per contract
Profit Target: 9497 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $450 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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6: SOFTS
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March Coffee KCH0
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A good example of why taking profit on target is a good idea….

Monday’s quick reversal stopped us out of our trailing position which is unfortunate as the trade had such a promising start.

COMPLETION of Short March Coffee at 143.15 (December 4)
Stopped: 145.55 (December 7)
Approximate Loss: $900 per contract

1st Profit Target: 141.55 (December 4)
Approximate Profit: $600 per contract

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March Cotton CTH0
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For all my preaching about sticking with the trend as long as possible, leave it to Cotton to call my bluff. I’m reversing my initial position and looking to buy above Monday’s high. Of course we have the resistance from the other week to deal with, and that could be a big obstacle.

If March Cotton opens at or below 7500
BUY 2 March Cotton at 7252 (stop)(day)

If filled: Exit Stop: 7360 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $825 per contract
Profit Target: 7640 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $575 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH

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January OJ OJF0
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I’m not very happy about the whipsaw in OJ this morning. At least it was relatively “cheap”.

COMPLETION of Short January OJ at 122.25 (December 7)
Stopped: 124.80 (December 7)
Approximate Loss: $382 per contract

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March Sugar SBH0
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Sugar continues to tease us in our short position. Yes, Monday was a bearish session overall, but if failed to put in new lows and that’s not good.

CONTINUATION of Short 2 March Sugar at 2257 (December 4)
Exit Stop: 2327 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $784 per contract
Profit Target: 2183 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $828 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

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