You all sure made the most out of a no trade trade ... lol.
I've watched with interest what transpired and the follow up posts Rob contributed. Let me first say that I understand Rob's approach and know where from his numbers are derived. It matters not whether I agree with those number or not or whether he agrees with mine. Joe threw in yet even different numbers and I have no quarrel with his either. So long as YOUR system or methods or whatever you want to label them put that number in front of you, then you trade it fearlessly, according to YOUR rules and drawing of lines in the sand. The box, I assure you, is large enough to accomodate a bunch of different numbers. It would not be the first nor last time I have observed multiple trades put on according to different sets of numbers and philosophies and seen them all produce or all lose. Rarely if ever have I seen multiple approaches produce profits for only one based solely on the approach to entry. Sure, at the end of the day I've seen one person wind up a winner and others losers. But it had to do with things like CONFIDENCE and COMMITMENT and MANAGEMENT ... those do far more to separate the men from the boys than any analysis differences are capable of doing.
Here's my take on the trade. You'll need to go back to the way the chart existed at Thursday's close to follow my comments. Based on what we saw at that juncture I would have been interested in buying a failed retest at about 11.85 or, dependent on the whispers, selling a break below. One of the things that I want from my lines in the sand is the ability to do either ... buy or sell ... dependent on the market's whispers at that level.
I would have had my stop on the buy at 11.85 at 11.77 and 11.93 or possibly 11.97 on the sell. I don't think I could even get my hands to stop shaking sufficiently to type entry at 11.93 and stop at 11.37 let alone do it ... lol.
The target would have been 11.40 on the sell with a roll to B/.E at as we passed thru 11.75 and aggressive rolls at 11.65 and 11.44 and a squeezw from 40 on down. The target for the buy would have been 12.40 but I sure as shootin' would be eyeballin' those 2 gaps beginning at 1305 and 1368 as possibilities within reach of this trade. I'd be at B/E by 12.00 and roll at 1212, 1228 and start a major squeeze on it at about 1235 daring the market to come get me.
One thing Rob and I couldn't agree on more is the value of setting lines in the sand and focusing solely, exclusively, myopically on them to the exclusion of every other price point on the chart. We both do that religiously and you heard me preach it over and over in webinars and basically every time I open my mouth. It is one of thee if not thee most important concept of my trading ... ambush from a fortified position with good cover as opposed to chasin' the enemy up the road HE determines. Drawing lines in the sand allows the trader to be extraordinarily focused, it conserves energy, it is a huge confidence builder and prevents your power from being diluted and disapated by trying to keep pace with the price flow. Price flow is only the means by which the market delivers prey to my doorstep.
Keep up the good work gang, this has been a great thread ... thanks Rob for picking up the gauntlet. THIS is exactly what I had in mind with my " let's have some fun" post last week.
NOW! Let's jump ahead on the chart to tomorrow ... How many are in favor of buying a break above 12.48 with a stop at 12.37 or selling a failed retest on anything above 12.38 up to 12.48 as it breaks back lower with a stop at 12.47 or perhaps 12.53 for those of you with deeper pockets ... like Rob:)
Have a great rest of the week y'all.