LOL. You bet I was serious about the trade! Pity there were no suckers selling on the open so I could pick up my contract cheap!
There is no real secret to this trade, you guys are all learning it. S/R.
Perhaps what I do appears at 1st blush to be rather aggressive. Actually, its more passive since I'm a known coward and highly risk adverse.
When I trade my line, in this case 11.93, that was my line in the sand. It had acted as support, then acted as resistance, then support again. In any model (method) one must make assumptions otherwise you're left floating around in a hypothetical, hazy space. My assumption about that line was it was going to hold. It was that simple. Based on all I have experienced, seen and analysed, in my judgement, that line was going to hold. Having arrived at that decision, I just plopped my order there and waited. It is at your line that your risk is at its least. The line is the point where you will be closest to your stop! Now, it was just a matter of arriving at targets that could be easily reached within a reasonable timeframe given the current volatility. As for the down side. Had the assumption been incorrect, again based on experience, then the possibility of a large move back with the existing trend was almost a foregone conclusion. Therefore, with almost all the odds now comfortably stacked in your favour, you bring all you can to the party, (add as much size as you can)close your eyes, and reverse. I have found, the most reliable signal, is a FAILED signal. Check it out yourself. Most of the time, if your signal that is usually reliable fails, the market makes a big move in the OPPOSITE direction to the signal. Don't just stand there in disbelief - get on it! Its ok to be wrong, its not ok to stay wrong.
RobT