Thanks for the reply, Rob. I missed it last night because I had to get to bed (and my wife was yelling at me to shut that darn computer down).
You accomplished your purpose in having fun with us on this one. I went to bed with 2 nagging issues on my mind. The first was minor - I failed to mention the 4th setup, which was selling another failed retest of 12.47, but that was only for day trading.
The other issue is still on my mind this morning, so I may have to go outside and mow lawn for a while to clear it away.
From the outset, I thought you might be pulling our leg on that position trade. But I don't know you well enough to determine that, so I thought I would err on the side of politeness. Tom and Spike know you better, and they didn't seem to take it seriously - Spike didn't even show his FORKS on that chart he posted. That's SIGNIFICANT, lol.
Then there were all of those other issues - top and bottom picking, a profit expectancy of 68 cents for each dollar risked, mathematical models, and (to really cap it off) those pithy little tidbits of "darkest before the dawn...etc." Just the kind of stuff the hucksters have been selling for years.
In considering the markets you trade daily, you can't be messing around with math models on every one of those trades. But again, maybe you know something that I don't. THAT is the only thing that nags at me. You may have used them in your previous life as a position trader - if you did that.
Of course, it would take a very subtle mind and a master trader to create a scenario like you did, and more so to DEFEND your stance against would-be assailants. You have the experience to make it SOUND so convincing. So, my hat is off to you if that's the case. But dammit! You can really get a guy going!
However it turns out, thanks for fun.
Joe