Hello again, Rob

Yep, I think you ARE going to generate a little reaction with this trade. Should be fun. To begin with, I'm approaching it from the S&R methodology that I've become accustomed to. You are using something different, and even though I don't buy the rationale to it (my trading is not founded on top and bottom picking), you must have found a successful way to do it, and I respect that.

I'm posting a chart with these notes for the convenience of other readers. First of all, until recently, we've had no structure down at this level to base any trading plan on. The last time we had any activity at these prices was Nov. 2005.

I can understand your entry at 11.93 only because that line is starting to build some S&R. Likewise for your stop at the lows around 11.37, even though that makes for a poor risk/reward ratio, taking into account everything else that follows. I see by your other target lines that you are establishing them on the basis of "filling the gaps". But your initial target at 12.94 looks to be in question because there has been no definitive break of that S&R line forming around 12.47, and it's the strongest of the lines I see. That's going to present a temporary problem, especially in light of today's reaction to it. The price tried to break through and fell off - back to where the market opened. That's WEAK, Rob, and I can't seeing buying into weakness with a limit order at 11.93. The market would have to show even MORE weakness to trigger your order.

For me, there is not enough confirmation of a trend reversal to establish a long position yet. But there could be. . . .in a while. . . and that's what I would wait for.

If I HAD TO daytrade it tomorrow (which I probably would not), I would wait for 3 possible setups. First, I would buy a break above 12.47. I would also buy a retest of 11.93 that failed and headed back north. And, of course, I would SELL into the weakness on a break below 11.93. I think it's too premature to buy it, until I get some clearer signals to the contrary.

Eventually the market is going to do what you want it to - but I would wait for clearer signals, and trade each of them accordingly. I mean, we ARE talking daytrading. Why triple your short contracts to cover needless losses on a weak long trade? When I first read your description, my reaction was "deep-pockets-long-range". Oh well, I seek to understand.

Thanks for your mind-tickler. And by the way, where did you get that 92% success figure?

Joe