View Thread Return to Index Previous Next

Support and Resistance Traders' Forum

Re: KC /Grains target question.........
By:Tom Loge'
Date: Monday, 6 December 2004, 4:34 pm
In Response To: Grains target question......... (KC)

There are targets and then there are targets. A lot of their significance depends on how you intend to use them. In a look at the March Corn chart, I see several areas I think have much more significance than 2.20 or 2.50. If I'm only trying to get a sense of how my trade might play out 220 and 250 are probably sufficient. If, however, the goal is identifying points at which the market is "MOST LIKELY" to do something detrimental to my position ... that's another matter all together.

Having initiated a long Corn position, I am interested in identifying the places, i.e. prices, at which the odds are pretty high the move in my favor will end if not outright reverse. These prices would constitute a CALL TO ACTION. These are the prices, when hit, which will prompt me to roll stops or grab accumulated profits because odds, probabilities and unfavorable RRR dictate that would be the "smart" if not mandatory response.

The chart shows us 2.17 1/4 to 2.18 1/4, 2.20, 2.29, 2.34, 2.36 1/2, 2.40, 2.44, 2.46 1/2, 2.48 1/2 and 2.51 1/2 all possess "WHAT'S MOST LIKELY" status.
Particularly the 2.17-18, 2.34-2.36, 2.40 and 2.48 areas deserve focus.

In the case of numbers used for management purposes we must have a bit of precision. Looking, for instance, at the 250 area for corn. If we eyeball it and say 2.50 seems to be the area for a reasonable target ...which it does ... we run the risk, without more precision, of getting caught in a bad spot. To wit; assume you are long and focused on 2.50 as your target. The market makes it's run and encounters 2.48 1/2 stalls then reverses sharply. Had you waited for 2.50 and not rolled your stop up tight you might give back a bunch of your accumulated profit. If, however, you identified the strong S&R at 2.48 1/2 you'd have snugged that puppy up there and gone to the bank with a, perhaps, much larger wheel barrow.

Same thing exists in Wheat.

Hope this helps some.

Messages In This Thread

Grains target question.........
KC -- Monday, 6 December 2004, 1:46 pm
Re: Grains target question.........
Rob -- Monday, 6 December 2004, 2:56 pm
Re: KC /Grains target question.........
Tom Loge' -- Monday, 6 December 2004, 4:34 pm