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Re: COT's Careful!
By:KC
Date: Thursday, 30 December 2004, 4:16 pm
In Response To: Re: COT's Careful! (Erich (vendor, CTA))

Erich, no, I didn't think you were beating on me. I appreciate your sharing of knowledge. I had just never seen charts like that before with the COT and price graphed out. Untill I saw the graphs, I had only read figures and never really got a picture (chart) of all those figures. I'm still a little in the dark, though. As Tom put it, the Commercials consist of producers and processors (for example: farmers and Kellog's). It seems that would cause Commercial OI to be sort of flat(producers selling and processors buying). I'm guessing that the ratio of producers to processors in the Commercial OI is relative to the price. In the grain COT charts I posted, with the commercial's running opposite of the price, it seems they'd be losing a whole lot of money. As Tom says the producers are long cash(because they have the product to sell) so they're probably OK. But if the processors(short the cash because they have to buy) are included in the COT, they would have to be the big losers. But then again, Kellog's sells a lot of cereal, so it balances out. So I'm guessing right now, the majority of Commercial OI right now is processors buying, because grain is so cheap. Really, the thing that intrigues me about COT(comm and funds, not you and I) is that it is the grand scheme of it all. It's what makes the price what it is. With the price of grains right now, if you were a producer, why would you sell at such a low price?(bills to pay, maybe?) If you were a processor, wouldn't you want to buy every grain of wheat and kernel of corn you could get your hands on at this price?(storage problems, maybe?). So, am I correct in thinking that the producer/processor ratio of Comm interest changes relative to price, or am I just totally lost in space when it comes to COT?

Messages In This Thread

Corn *PIC*
KC -- Thursday, 23 December 2004, 10:52 am
Re: Corn
Jack-7 -- Thursday, 23 December 2004, 2:18 pm
Re: Corn *LINK*
KC -- Monday, 27 December 2004, 8:44 am
Re: Jack-7, Corn *LINK*
KC -- Monday, 27 December 2004, 8:49 am
Re: Jack-7, Corn
Jack-7 -- Monday, 27 December 2004, 9:53 am
COT's Careful!
Erich (vendor, CTA) -- Wednesday, 29 December 2004, 5:05 pm
Re: COT's Careful!
KC -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 8:54 am
Re: COT's Careful!
Erich (vendor, CTA) -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 1:46 pm
There is a Holy Grail in trading...
Spike -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 2:30 pm
Re: There is a Holy Grail in trading...
Tom Loge' -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 6:11 pm
Re: There is a Holy Grail in trading...
Spike -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 9:07 pm
Re: There is a Holy Grail in trading...
Rob -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 10:07 pm
Re: COT's Careful!
KC -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 4:16 pm
Re: COT's Careful!
Tom Loge' -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 7:23 pm
Re: COT's Careful!
KC -- Friday, 31 December 2004, 9:00 am
Re: COT's Careful!
Tom Loge' -- Thursday, 30 December 2004, 6:08 pm