I hope I didn't sound like I was "beating you up" KC, I wasn't. You're right the COT is just another tool to give us a feel for what is happening out there. Higher corn prices are coming - guaranteed - but what excuse traders will finally find to drive prices higher remains to be seen.

The Funds are usually on the money making side for the short term. As I mentioned the commercials often take a position as a hedge...and not to make money trading. The problem with the funds is that when they decide to leave in a hurry they can cause a huge price swing (ie. silver a few weeks ago).

When I saw that silver was "top heavy" it was a combination of:

1. Very strong Fund participation long
2. Very strong Small Spec participation long
3. Increasing Commercials to the short side

This told me that since the Funds and Small Specs have little staying power (especially the Small Specs) any serious resistance could send prices lower in a hurry...which they did.

Gecko had been promoting a new indicator, JBCOT, which was a COT following indicator. Indicators abound, and while we ALL know there is no Holy Grail in trading, it doesn't discourage too many people from looking. Remember, it's not so much calling the market direction (ie. prediction) than management that is the key to trading success.

Take that step and you'll be one step closer to making money in the markets.

Erich
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
http://www.supportandresistance.com