Wheat is going to have to get above 312 resistance before I even get halfway serious about buying. The daily and long term trend is down, down, down and while we might see the odd bullish flury, I'm not getting too excited until we see support hold and resistance give way.

Likewise I'm standing aside until we get closer to the bottom of the recent trading range at 295 - 297. While there's a few bucks to be made intraday trading between these support and resistance levels the bigger move won't come until we take out either of the previously mentioned resistance areas.

Regarding the COT report, I think the reason you are seeing the Funds liquidate a bit is that they know the market is against some serious support. A break below support will likely bring in the sellers again, but right now there's too much bouncing around for them. I agree that we are overdue for a retracement...but I don't think we're going to get it just because the Funds are liquidating some of their holdings.

Just my opinion of course.

Erich
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
http://www.supportandresistance.com