Hi Justin,

Take your pick ... :)

As technical traders we feed voraciously on structure ... we have none above us.

The Risk and Reward is not always about a specific trade and specific price level. Sometimes it can be thought through on a bigger view. For instance ...
Look at the Bond chart before today. What probabilities existed of a 2 point advance in price? A 1 point? Almost none based on the chart, I'd say. Reverse. What probabilities exist for a 2 point down move? Pretty high I'd say. Am I really willing to risk a buy which would probably have potential not much beyond a half point, 16 ticks, with the odds that I could have to ward off a diproportionately big down move? I don't believe that would meet my criteria for a good proposition.

Funds heavily net long. Am I willing to bet my account or a significant chunk of it that they will not unload their monster position while I'm long? Lots of COT reliant traders try to follow the funds. I don't think I'd want to find out they dumped their longs AND THEN follow suit and dump my long(s). There's a recipe I care not to taste.

There has been a lot of money "parking" going on in the Bonds of late. We are in the midst of an active earnings reporting window. We might see some "unparking". Parking occurs over a protracted period of time, unparking can be mercurial. We dumped a point today in little more than the blink of an eye, did we not?