Hi Justin,

Sorry this has taken a few days to answer.

The Bonds are almost a different game for me than trading any other market. I formulated my approach in an effort to make it as mechanical as possible. Bonds somewhat lends itself to that IF you accept the basic premise of -16 and -00 being the only numbers that require attention.

As such the Bonds don't lend themselves well to concepts such as I use in the $10 Gold Channel Strategy. There a confirmation is a requisite part of the strategy. In Bonds we deal with very small risks and roll much more agressively than any other market I trade. The confirmation theory will not work here, in my opinion. You just trade the numbers when the show themselves.

If -16 gets broken you sell it ... you hope the execution gets you in, worst case, at -14, if you catch a break and it backs up a tad maybe -15. If it goes against you, you have your stop at 19 to get you out and hopefully it moves enough in you favor to take advantage of the quick roll to B/E. If it comes back down, you sell again on the break of -16.

If it continues up, you buy one as it breaks -18/19 and hope the execution gets you long at 20 or 21. There is no confirmation process to latch on to that will benefit you. There is no doubt you are vulnerable to being whipped around a bit. It WILL happen to us at some point ... some POINTS, plural. Historically, it doesn't happen very often or the strategy wouldn't work. The numbers rule, and rule without confirmation.

To put it in another context, remember you are playing a market with a VERY high tick value with risk of rarely more than $156 to 187. That's about the equivalent of trading Corn with a risk of $35-$40. 15 Bond ticks gets us $500. Corn has to move 10 CENTS to give us a shot at $500. Take a look at the charts and compare the odds of making a $500 move in Bonds versus a $500 move in Corn in a single day. A perspective not many traders consider when trading.

I'm sure there are guys/gals out there that could probably improve this strategy, I don't have the brain power to do it. This is as good as it gets for me. In my defense, however, I will say the strategy in its present form has treated me very, very well. I am severely unmotivated to improve upon it:)