For bearing with us as our own Shag(Bob Villa)muffin
completes our major remodel ... here's today's update in
the open, as they say.
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"Tom's Trades for Thursday December 2, 2004
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1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDH5 O= 110-09 HI=110-16 LO=109-24 CL=109-31
I missed a buy just after the open which would have turned
out fairly nice. It did not conform to my rules in that
I would have had to make the buy at about 110-07. There
is a real danger when you see a trade that worked out and
you only JUST had to bend the rules a little to have gotten
I that the next time you bend them. Yes, this one worked,
the next one won't ... guaranteed. Stick with the rules,
your rules ... over time they will serve you much better
than the bends.
After we peaked at ... where? Why, 110-16, of course ...
I sold one at 14 with a stop at 19. We immediately headed
south. We went to 26 and bounced rather hard I thought. I
exited as quickly as I could. Out at 109-30 for 16 points,
$500. I then sold one at 109-29 and was stopped out at B/E.
After 3 attempts to go lower failed I brought the stop to
B/E and got filled at -30 for a loss of 1 point. Finally,
I bought 1 at 11-03 and it too, was stopped out at B/E.
Net 15 on the day, $468.
We settled today at 109-31 ...my fav ...right on the line.
The focal point is 110-00. We need to see a little move
down, a failure and then we'll buy as it heads thru 110-03
or we'll see a little bounce up, a failure and we'll sell
as it breaks 110-00 hoping to get short no worse than 109-28
aaaaand not sooner than 109-30.
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2:MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O=97.130 HI=97.145 LO=97.115 CL=97.125
I haven't figured out what to do with this chart quite
yet. I know I want to be short, but don't know if I can
get comfortable selling anything until I see the test
of 97.18-185. I'm exercising patience but I hear the branch
I'm perched on creaking in the wind.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLLAR
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CDZ4 O=8395 HI=8454 LO=8395 CL=8445
I made an attempt to get 1 sold, it didn't work. We tapped
on 53 and then 54 but each time it broke south so fast I
couldn't get a Bid/Ask that would have allowed me in better
than about 47. I judged that to be too far off the mark.
Nothing done.
I will put the CDZ4 on the self and roll all trading to
March 05. I will pick CD back up on Monday giving the market
a couple of days to get the roll done and settle down.
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4: FEBRUARY GOLD
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GCG5 O=453.30 HI=457.70 LO=452.40 CL=455.90
Not quite yet. Patience.
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5: MARCH COTTON
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CTH5 O=44.55 HI=44.78 LO=43.25 CL=43.89
This market really disappointed me today. We had the thing
read perfectly. We only needed it to work just a tad higher
before the break happened. Honestly, I thought 44.78 was
close enough, especially since it was yesterday's close.
It fell away so fast on the reopen the best shot I had was
a fill in the 60's. Too low. Never gave us another chance.
For tomorrow we are back to the TT numbers ...take your
pick of the most appropriate of the 4 depending on where
the market opens. Include 45.00 in the mix as well as
detailed yesterday.
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6: MARCH COCOA
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COH5 O= 1661 HI=1663 LO=1635 CL=1659
I'll sell this market tomorrow if we do not trade higher
than 1675, fail and head lower as it breaks below 1660
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7: MARCH CORN
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CH5 O=2.04 1/2 HI=2.05 3/4 LO=2.03 CL=2.03 1/4
Am I a speculative spectator or a spectating speculator?
I do know I ain't doin' nothin'.
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8: MARCH WHEAT
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WH5 O=3.03 HI=3.03 3/4 LO=2.96 1/4 CL=2.97 1/2
I'm one of them here too. You'll be the first to know when
I get this one figured out.
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8: MARCH SOYMEAL
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SMH5 O=158.00 HI=160.00 LO=156.30 CL=156.60
I was stopped out at 158.20 right at the open for $150
profit. I sold 159.70 again just a bit later in the day.
I walked this one home as well. I have the stop at 157.10
presently.
We'll see tomorrow.
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9: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O=7.780 HI=8.130 LO=7.780 CL=8.080
If Mo0nday was a skyrocket , today was an ICBM. Wow! That
is a serious power play for a market looking so top heavy.
Back to the drawing board. How could you buy OR sell this
thing? Answer ... you can't ... well, I can't anyway.
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Market Alert is a publication of Traders Helping
Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 Traders Helping Traders.net.
204 Cowichan Avenue East
Lake Cowichan, British Columbia, V0R 2G0
(250)749-4191 (Pacific Time Zone)
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RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves
significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your
own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a
recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or
advisor before making any trade to insure current prices, margin
requirements and other factors determinant to suitability. By
reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in
whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before
doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and
advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations,
some of which are described below. No representation is being made
that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses
similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between
hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently
achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that
they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In
addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and
no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the
impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to
particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material
points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general
or to the implementation of any specific trading program which
cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical
performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual
trading results.
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