It will be pretty big. Probably down to 80 area this year or early next. That's where we want to buy it.

You are probably right about the support level. It should bounce over the next week or month. Could even gap up. But that should be the head fake needed to break support. Then possibly down to 80 area.

I've attached a very interesting weekly coffee chart. It has a phenomenon I first noticed around five years ago. We've got these sort of charts for most major markets, but coffee is perhaps the best example as we're currently in a period of "repeating history" almost tick for tick. Coffee is expanding a past formation onto a larger time and price scale. Almost tick for tick. It is amazing. The technical reason for betting the farm several years ago.

Current fundamental analysis also suggests a move down in price. World export figures: year over year -13.1%, half year over half year -11.2%, month over month -10.6%. And most of the market is anticipating a very good harvest. I've not seen anything that conflicts with that view. The downward trend in world exports is subsiding, though. It tends to change exponentially in correlation with price, so as price falls, we're looking to see the fall in exports fade off sharply. That and the technical level of 80 is what we're looking at.

That is long term tho. Daily, this support could easily see a move up. Daily time frame coffee seems oversold. Even that gap move, if history continues to repeat.