Hi there Mark
Normally I don't wade into the trade advice arena on the forum since a) I'm not qualified to do so, b)you guys are doing just fine on your own, and c)It's not my place, its Tom and Erich's. Having said that...lol I'm jumpin' in!
If it were me, I'd stand down. Nothing wrong with the analysis, trend is down, your "trading line" looks good, problem is timing. Tomorrow at 9:30 am, 1 hour after bond pit opens, Bernanke will be speaking, who knows what he may say, or may not say. You may win big on the trade, sure, but you also have added another component of risk into the situation. Secondly, the bond market will likely be, for the most part, relatively quiet going into the employment report on Friday, barring any event news. This could lead to whippy and choppy conditions - more of that nasty risk stuff. I'd hate to see you whipped out of 2 contracts for 10 ticks a piece. What I do, if I feel the trade is still worth doing, even with the additional risk, is I scale back my size. That way, if I'm correct, I still make something, but if I'm wrong, the sting isn't so bad. Perhaps try 1 contract instead of 2? Remember, if it does go your way, the market usually will give us another kick at the cat inwhich to add to our positions.
Just a thought.
Rob