Hi, Trip - good to hear from you again. I checked that link, and it was interesting to look at that perspective. I think that it comes down to HOW an individual interprets and draws trendlines. Personally, I find them to be a little subjective at times. Attached is a purely subjective proposal of how one might look at the daily wheat chart and see a break-out. Right or wrong? I really don't know.

I have also taken into account the impact of the relatively new index funds, which are having quite an impact in trading the fundamentals of the commodity scene. Their approach seems to be different than the technical trend-following funds that we have been accustomed to for years. (Tom or Erich - any insights?). They appear at times to overpower the technicals we follow. Might we have to start taking them into account as a note of caution now and then? They piled on THOUSANDS of contracts starting last Friday, much of which was in Kansas and Minneapolis wheat, but which dragged CBOT along with it. And from my understanding, they operate as hedge funds, strictly BUYING the long-range markets. They don't go short. The only time they sell is to liquidate for profit-taking.

I'm still trying to grasp the whole picture, and any insight from our members would be welcome. Please educate this poor old rookie.

Right or wrong? I don't know - time will tell.

Good $$$$ to you,

Joe