BS"D
RULES AND CAVEATS
Pivot Magic Trading Course
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
http://www.TradingThingys.com
MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Monday (19 December 2005)
_____________________
Moveout (and down) Monday it was. Nice rangy day leaving
Price nicely inside the Long-term Sideways Channel(s).
Tuesday should be a nice bounce too. Be prepared to grab
profits now, because the vacation season is nigh upon us.
*******************
Morning session opens gap-up at the Pivot Resistance, dips, and tries again to cross
through the defenses.
1 = Bull DVS (middle chart) reverses. Not sure about the preceding trend necessary
to call this a reversal signal though. Also not too clear if the 2-bar even
completes on the third candle (permitted per our rules).
Market drifts sideways, bumping regularly and futilely against the strong Resistance
at the Pivot.
2 = Doji Sandwich "P" signal (bit small, but not when taken relative to the ABS of
the preceding string of tiny candles)/Failed TTT (Third Time Through) attempt at the
Pivot. (See also the 10-Minute, bottom left chart. BTW, on the Daily, bottom right
chart Price Action is early in a L-T failed Bear TTT move off the [outside, lavender
lines] L-T Sideways Channel ceiling.) This could be it.
Got pulled in by the red Bull Dragonfly, and then Price Action promptly stalled. Was
preparing to jump when everything broke loose.
A = Failed test of the MA. Per our rules, we happily reduce Undefended At Risk by
moving the profit-locking stop above the MA.
B = Large red candle. Aggressively move profit-locking stop, per our rules, above the
high of the candle. The position is now profitable!
C = Failed test of MA. Move profit-locking stop above the MA. This is starting to
look like a stairstepping trend south.
J = 123 continuation "S" entry at the Close. Good chance to add contracts as the
Price Action exits the "green fog" ambush zone.
D = Second healthy red candle closes below the Close. Our stop rules say to move the
profit-locking stop above the Close.
E = Second healthy red candle closes below the HighM. Move profit-locking stop above
the HighM.
Price Action slows as it crosses the semi-permeable (inside) L-T Sideways Channel
ceiling (blue line). Another stairstep south.
F = Call it a failed test of MA or better yet, a second healthy red candle closing
below the blue line. Move profit-locking stop above the blue line.
G = Price Action continues to plummet, easily passing through the S1 Support defenses.
DVS (Desperation Volume Spike, middle chart). If the Bull (green bar) surge had
resulted in anything more substantial than a BEAR spike this would have been an exit,
but in fact, Volume died, making for a weak, failed retest of S1 instead.
4 = 123 spiking weakly through S1. This "S" is another stairstep and a good
opportunity to add contracts to your position.
NOTE: If = G made you too nervous you moved the
profit-locking stop above S1 and got taken out
by this tiny spike. 6.50 points. Not bad at all.
H = Failed test of MA. Rules say, move profit-locking stop above the MA.
J = Another DVS Reversal with elevated Bull Volume. Volume then drops. With only
one more point to gain and EOD hiccup coming, this would be a safe exit point
(+/- 7.50 points); however:
* The resultant candle is mighty puny for such a Volume surge.
* The BBs rarely give up this close to the objective (S2) without
at least one serious final charge.
K = Failed test of MA. Aggressively move profit-locking stop tight above the MA
stairstep.
L = Pair of very weak spikes finally tap on the S2. This move is clearly over. If
you are still hanging on, EXIT NOW! +/- 9.75 points
Notice how clearly the Price Action hinged around
the Pivot Points Monday. No matter where you
jumped ship, this was a nice day for PMT trading.
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)
It doesn't seem necessary to say much today. The tape speaks
for itself. Price Action is dead-center in the middle of the
L-T Sideways Channels (outside, lavender lines; inside, blue
lines). The BBs are feeling nice and secure here.
Rather expecting another Bear charge to try for the floor(s)
on Tuesday. Then maybe a breather or a bounce to set things
up near the top for the long holiday weekend.
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Monday's PMT chart:
