BS"D
RULES AND CAVEATS
Pivot Magic Trading Course
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
http://www.TradingThingys.com
MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Wednesday (07 December 2005)
_____________________
Finally a decent range day!!!
Expecting more of the same for Thursday.
REMINDER: Don't forget that today
(Thursday December 8) is contract rollover
day. We are now watching the March contract,
and the topography is defined by the Pivot
Levels calculated from Dec. 7th
ON THE MARCH 2006 CONTRACT.
*****************************
Wow What a Wonderful Wednesday opens at Tuesday's Close and quickly dips below
the recently recurring "Historical' S/R (lavender line). Lookin' Bearish already!
1 = Double Doji spike Sandwich Anomaly reversal just barely in range of the S1.
Bull volume is less that fully supportive, but increases over the next couple of
bars. Entry places us promptly into the "green fog" (a no no), so we need to wait
till Price Action clears the fog. Never happens.
2 = Double top formation off the Close (Very clear on the 10-Minute, bottom left
chart). This is in fact a failed TTT if you include the Overnight, and a DVS
reversal (middle chart). Bear Volume takes over dramatically as Price Action
strongly moves below the lavender line. This is clearly one of those combination
of circumstances that we mentioned where the Close is considered a tradable/primary
PL.
A = Giant red breakout candle ripping through the Low permits us to place the
initial stop loss above the Low, almost at "free trade"! Love it!!!
B = Large red candle. Move profit-locking stop above the high of the candle.
And we're in the money!
3 = Note the Bear DVS followed by a Doji DVS (middle chart). At first this looks
like a reversal in the making, but the Bear Volume reasserts and it turns into a
"heroic Bear effort".
Volume drops steadily off as the BBs go out to lunch, and the market shifts into
Sideways lunchtime drift mode. For the next two and a half hours Price Action
stitches back and forth across the S2. We are in a strong position with profits
locked without choking the trade. Good feeling after a couple of dreary days,
isn't it?!?
C = Finally, a failed test of the MA pushes reasonably far south. Per our rules,
move profit-locking stop above the MA.
D = Giant red candle to the S2. Move profit-locking stop, per our rules, above
the high of the candle.
This is a sudden DVS, the DVS reversal of which (middle chart, green bar) would
make the beginning trader nervous. Notice, however, that all that Bull Volume only
resulted in the tiniest of white candles. No reason to jump ship here. Nevertheless,
looking for an opportunity to lock in more of the profits.
E = Here's a good opportunity! Failed test of MA. Move profit-locking stop above
the MA.
F = Large red candle. Slightly DVS (middle chart). Per our rules, move
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle. Price Action reverses, but Volume
dies. Our stop is very close by so again, no reason to jump ship. On the 10-Minute
tape (bottom left chart) we see a red Bull Dragonfly so be ready for anything that
says "end of move".
Price Action hovers and Volume is almost defunct. Looks like the move is really
over.
G = Bull DVS (middle chart). On the 10-Minute tape (bottom left) this presents as
a distinct white Bull Dragonfly. This stab south seems to be the last gasp of the
dying move. Ideally, exit as soon as the Price Action travels above the bodies of
the pair of 14:00 candles. Kill the stop!!! +/- 8 points
In fact the Bears make one move valiant, but futile attempt before the EOD hiccup
snaps Price Action back through the S2 where it stalls.
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)
H = Sure looks like a Bear reversal off the HighW/HighM
(blue line). Price Action has definitely exited the
long-term trend channel and seems headed for the .382
Fib retracement level (blue dashes) once again.
The day had a nice range so Thursday should be tradable
if the Bears follow through.
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com
Wednesday's PMT chart:
