BS"D

RULES AND CAVEATS

Pivot Magic Trading Course
First rule:
"...Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"

http://www.TradingThingys.com

MARKET IN REVIEW - LITE
Monday (21 November 2005)
_____________________

PREAMBLE/PERSPECTIVE

Before the market opens, let's get our bearings.

First of all there is a saying that Monday is (quite often)
a continuation of Friday's close. Friday closed with a bit
of a stall at the end of a nice Bull burst.

Second, we have many times discussed the preference of the
BBs to go into a long holiday weekend with their positions
square and Price elevated.

Third, Thanksgiving break starts with the market closing
early on Wednesday.

Fourth, Tuesday there is an FOMC announcement, so the market
will be hesitant for much of the mid-day trading.

Put it all together and we can suspect:

1. An overall bullish Monday.

2. A Bullish Tuesday Morning. A rather dull stretch up till
2:00. A dip on the bad news (expecting it!) FOMC, forming
another stairstep.

3. Slight Bull recovery tendency, but mostly dull Tuesday EOD
and Wednesday.

4. Staying pretty much inside the blue trend channel (Daily,
bottom right chart)

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

We of course don't trade Wednesday. In fact we won't have a
reliable basis for calculating PLs till after Monday (It's
always a shame to miss the back from vacation burst, sigh, but
we demand reliable topography to trade.). Thus, the first PMT
trading day will be Tuesday, so we'll have a
CLASS BREAK UNTIL WEDNESDAY!

********************

Monday morning opens at the Close, continuing Friday's Bullish stall.

1 = DT Multiple-bottom off the Pivot/behind the Close (See Overnight, bottom left
chart, for better view of the preceding trend.) Not enough umph to really clear
the "green fog". Need a confirming signal off the Close to enter here.

2 = Powerful 123 "S" off the Close. There's our second chance confirming signal.
Entry above the fog.

A = Breakout candle is also second healthy white candle beyond the Close, permitting
us to place initial stop-loss under the Close for a nice, low-risk entry.

B = Large white candle through the High. Is this a DVS (middle chart)? Per our rules
apply the aggressive choice, move profit-locking stop under the High. Trade is now profitable.

3 = DVS Doji Sandwich converts into a clean red Bear Dragonfly off the R1 and Volume
dies (middle chart). This is a classic "Exit Now" signal. Ideal exit was as soon and
the second Doji (the red Dragonfly) crossed back under the R1.
1.5 - 2.5 points, depending on how briskly you responded.

BTW, even with such a signal and the lunchtime-drift likelihood of a retest of the
Close, we clearly cannot consider Reversal here. The Price Window to the Proven PL,
Close, is too small to safely enter.

4 = Failed TTT at the Close. "Must" try TTT now at the High. We don't enter off the
High, and the R1 is proven, so this is (at best) preparation for a later "S" PMT entry.

C = 123 Successful TTT at the High. Notice that there is not yet any Volume. Where
are the BBs? Must be scheming!!!

D = This is our set up! Failed TTT retest of Resistance-turned-Support at the High.
"Must" now try for TTT at the R1. Remember, the R1 is proven so we need a Bull signal
off/through the R1 to enter.

H = Notice how similar these two formations are. Pressure is extremely Bullish.
(Also, see Preamble/Perspective, in opening letter above.)

5 = 123 "S" Bull signal off the R1. Heavy Volume resumes (middle chart) confirming the
signal.

BUT: It is very close to EOD hiccup time.

FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES:
Only very experienced advanced traders put the parts together
(see PREAMBLE) and saw the low-risk/high probability
opportunity here.

BEGINNERS WISELY SHUT THEIR MONITORS AT 15:00.

E = The medium or the large white Dragonfly kickoff candle pulls the Advanced trader
into this Pivot Scalp trade. Happily, initial stop-loss is tight under the R1 for a
low-risk entry.

F = Giant white candle and huge Volume spurt (middle chart). Looks like momentum is
getting shaky. Move profit-locking stop under the low of the candle, "Free Trade"
plus a tik.

G = With a final burst of Volume (which immediately reverses, BTW, middle chart),
Price Action stretches to tap on the R2. Pivot Scalp rules say exit when touched.
+/-3.25 points

THIS WAS NOT A BEGINNER'S TRADE.
ADVANCED AND EXPERIENCED SCALPERS ONLY.

Beware FOMC on Tuesday!

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.TradingThingys.com

Monday's PMT chart: