Commodity Pick Report
Morning Call, August 25, 2011
”The money’s made in the sitting and the waiting, not the trading.” – Jesse Livermore
“There’s nothing wrong with being choosy” – Erich Senft
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Welcome to Commodity Pick Report!
Commodity Pick Report gives you my best hand picked trades for each week. The trades are classified according to their probability of success, with low risk trades having the greatest probability of success and high risk trades the least. There are trade management suggestions for open positions and profit targets are offered for your consideration but I would advise you to adjust recommendations to suit your own circumstances.
Remember the key to making money in trading does not require taking numerous trades; rather the best way to make money is to take multiple contracts on the most promising trades. Note: CPR trades do not account for slippage; therefore your actual fills might be slightly different than those reported here.
Here's to your success!
Erich
erich@tradershelpingtraders.com
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Position Trades
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU1
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We got resistance again in the AD, and while it hasn’t confirmed yet you could plan to SELL below Wednesday’s low. A “safer” plan is to wait for confirmation of resistance and then SELL.
If September Australian Dollar opens at or above 10400
SELL 2 September Australian Dollar at 10390 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 10520 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1300 per contract
Profit Target: 10100 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $2900 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September British Pound BPU1
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The BP made a quick about-face Wednesday and stopped us out in the process. I still think the Bulls have more in them; however I’ll wait for support to show itself before we give it another try.
In the meantime enjoy your profits! You earned them!
COMPLETION of Long September British Pound at 16270 (August 12)
Exit Stop: 16420 (August 24)
Approximate Profit: $937 per contract
1st Profit Target: 16440 (August 16)
Approximate Profit: $1062 per contract
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September Canadian Dollar CDU1
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The CD pennant is ripe for a breakout and I think we might see one Thursday if prices head lower. This could be the beginning of a much larger move, but first things first.
If the September Canadian Dollar opens at or above 10080
SELL 2 September Canadian Dollar at 10075 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 10165 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $900 per contract
Profit Target: 10005 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $700 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September EuroFX ECU1
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I’m not certain what to make of the very neutral day in the EC; however I do know where resistance is so I know where I would BUY if the market rallies.
If the September EuroFX opens at or below 14535
BUY 2 September EuroFX at 14540 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 14340 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2500 per contract
Profit Target: 14640 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1250 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Japanese Yen JYU1
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FLAT
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September Swiss Franc SFU1
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FLAT
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September US Dollar Index DXU1
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Watch List – and if the Euro is going up then the USD must be going down; however I’m going to wait for the final confirmation before committing.
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2: INDICES
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June Eurodollar EDCM12
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I’m not sure the Bulls are serious about rallying the market yet, so we could be a touch early on this trade, but the good news is that the risk is relatively small so it shouldn’t hurt too much if we’re wrong.
If the June Eurodollar opens at or below 995100
BUY 2 June Eurodollar at 995200 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 994200 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $250 per contract
Profit Target: 996200 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $250 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: GRAINS
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November Canola RSX1
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FLAT
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December Corn CZ1
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FLAT
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December Oats OZ1
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FLAT
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December Soybean Meal SMZ1
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FLAT
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December Soybean Oil BOZ1
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Technically the support that formed Wednesday would nix the SELL order; however only the day was Bullish, the session itself didn’t break Tuesday’s highs so I’m still looking to SELL.
If December Bean Oil opens at or above 5585
SELL 2 December Bean Oil at 5580 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 5670 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $540 per contract
Profit Target: 5460 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $720 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Soybean SX1
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FLAT
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December Wheat WZ1
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FLAT
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4: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV1
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Watch List – Nuts. Missed the move in Feeder’s so we’re on hold until the next opportunity.
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October Live Cattle LCV1
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I wasn’t too worried about the Feeder signal because I knew we had Live Cattle to back us up. Nice fill Wednesday.
CONTINUATION of Short 2 October Live Cattle at 11475 (August 24)
Exit Stop: 11650 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $700 per contract
Profit Target: 11310 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $660 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Lean Hogs LHV1
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We sold Hogs on Wednesday as well. The strong close looks promising right now but we do have a hurdle early at 8615.
CONTINUATION of Short 2 October Lean Hogs at 8730 (August 24)
Exit Stop: 8900 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $680 per contract
Profit Target: 8560 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $680 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: METALS
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September Copper HGU1
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FLAT
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August Gold GCQ1
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FLAT
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September Silver SIU1
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FLAT
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6: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU1
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FLAT
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September Coffee KCU1
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FLAT
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December Cotton CTZ1
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Coffee’s gave us a head-fake, but that’s okay. Support and resistance kept us safe but not getting us filled, even though I was mistaken about the direction. We still need a retest of support, but I’ll wait to re-enter (with trend) until then. FLAT for Thursday.
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November OJ OJX1
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FLAT
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October Sugar SBV1
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Watch List – Sugar’s challenging the contract highs with a lot of Bullish momentum. If prices slip back to 3000 and find support we could be buyers. If they break through the highs and retest we could also be buyers. Either way it’ll take a few more days before we get a real signal.
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Day Trading Support and Resistance Lines
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September mini-Russell TFU1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
925.6
896.5
867.5
838.4
809.4
794.8
780.3
765.8
751.2
736.7
725.8
714.8
707.6
700.4
693.1
685.8
678.6
371.3
660.4
649.5
635.0
620.4
605.9
591.4
576.9
547.8
518.7
589.7
460.6
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September mini-S&P ESU1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
1480.25
1441.50
1403.00
1364.50
1326.00
1287.25
1258.50
1229.50
1210.25
1191.00
1171.75
1152.25
1133.00
1113.75
1085.00
1056.00
1017.50
979.00
940.25
901.75
863.25
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Commodity Pick Report is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 - 2011 Traders Helping Traders.net.
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My Lawyer Made Me Say
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Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that Commodity Pick Report believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any dollar amount quoted is exclusive of commissions and fees.
CFTC Rule 4.41
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to ensure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability.
By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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