Commodity Pick Report
Morning Call, June 30, 2011
”The money’s made in the sitting and the waiting, not the trading.” – Jesse Livermore
“There’s nothing wrong with being choosy” – Erich Senft
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Welcome to Commodity Pick Report!
Commodity Pick Report gives you my best hand picked trades for each week. The trades are classified according to their probability of success, with low risk trades having the greatest probability of success and high risk trades the least. There are trade management suggestions for open positions and profit targets are offered for your consideration but I would advise you to adjust recommendations to suit your own circumstances.
Remember the key to making money in trading does not require taking numerous trades; rather the best way to make money is to take multiple contracts on the most promising trades. Note: CPR trades do not account for slippage; therefore your actual fills might be slightly different than those reported here.
Here's to your success!
Erich
erich@tradershelpingtraders.com
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FYI
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With the long weekend looming on the horizon expect the markets to get extremely thin over the next couple of days. Friday is Canada Day in Canada, so Canadian related markets (CD and Canola will be closed). Monday is Independence Day in the US so all US markets will be closed.
Even though I might be recording open positions via the update, it is a good idea to close positions and remain FLAT over the holidays.
Enjoy the holiday,
Erich
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Position Trades
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU1
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We did everything “right” in the AD trade and it still turned around and spanked us. Oh well, that’s trading. You can be right and still be wrong.
COMPLETION OF Short September Australian Dollar at 10330 (June 27)
Exit Stopped: 10450 (June 29)
Approximate Loss: $1200 per contract
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September British Pound BPU1
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FLAT
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September Canadian Dollar CDU1
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FLAT
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September EuroFX ECU1
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FLAT
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September Japanese Yen JYU1
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There’s the reaction we were anticipating in the Yen and the market rallied high enough to trip our trailing stop at breakeven. No matter. We still took a nice profit before getting tagged.
COMPLETION of Short September Japanese Yen at 12420 (June 15)
Exit Stopped: 12420 (June 29)
Approximate Profit: $0 per contract
1st Profit Target: 12320 (June 28)
Approximate Profit: $1250 per contract
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September Swiss Franc SFU1
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FLAT
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September US Dollar Index DXU1
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FLAT
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2: INDICES
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December Eurodollar EDCZ1
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FLAT
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3: GRAINS
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November Canola RSX1
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The Bears showed us resistance for Wednesday but momentum continues to rise so I’m not too worried (yet). The smaller session could be the result of the pending long weekend as well.
CONTINUATION of Long 2 November Canola at 5710 (June 28)
Exit Stop: 5570 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $280 per contract
Profit Target: 5870 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $320 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Corn CU1
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I wouldn’t recommend this trade for real; however it will make an interesting papertrade seeing how the Bulls got smacked when they closed in on last week’s resistance. I would place a SELL order below Wednesday’s lows to catch a reversal.
If September Corn opens at or above 663 1/2
SELL 2 September Corn at 663 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 685 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $1100 per contract
Profit Target: 643 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1000 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH (because of the long weekend)
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September Oats OU1
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FLAT
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September Soybean Meal SMU1
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FLAT
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September Soybean Oil BOU1
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FLAT
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July Soybean SN1
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FLAT
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September Wheat WU1
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FLAT
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4: MEATS
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August Feeder Cattle FCQ1
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FLAT
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August Live Cattle LCQ1
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FLAT
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August Lean Hogs LHQ1
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FLAT
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5: METALS
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September Copper HGU1
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FLAT
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August Gold GCQ1
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Watch List – Gold’s back to resistance. Will the line hold? Tune in next week.... Personally I think it will. I’m quite Bearish on Gold right now.
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September Silver SIU1
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FLAT
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6: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU1
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FLAT
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September Coffee KCU1
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Watch List – I think the Coffee Bulls are on borrowed time. On the lookout for resistance and a chance to SELL.
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September Cotton CTU1
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FLAT
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November OJ OJX1
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FLAT
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October Sugar SBV1
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FLAT
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Day Trading Support and Resistance Lines
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September mini-Russell TFU1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
830.5
827.0
822.0
816.0
810.0
806.0
804.0
799.5
793.5
788.0
784.5
781.0
776.0
773.0
769.0
765.5
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September mini-S&P ESU1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
1319.75
1318.00
1312.00
1310.50
1308.00
1305.75
1300.75
1297.50
1294.25
1290.00
1286.75
1283.50
1279.75
1275.50
1271.50
1269.75
1266.25
1260.00
1257.75
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Commodity Pick Report is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 - 2011 Traders Helping Traders.net.
10 - 6078 Truesdale Street, Duncan, British Columbia, V9L 0B4
(250)748-9242 (Pacific Time Zone)
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My Lawyer Made Me Say
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Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that Commodity Pick Report believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any dollar amount quoted is exclusive of commissions and fees.
CFTC Rule 4.41
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to ensure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability.
By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Got it?