Commodity Pick Report
Morning Call, February 3, 2011
"The money's made in the sitting and the waiting, not the trading." - Jesse Livermore
"There's nothing wrong with being choosy" - Erich Senft
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Welcome to Commodity Pick Report!
Commodity Pick Report gives you my best hand picked trades for each week. The trades are classified according to their probability of success, with low risk trades having the greatest probability of success and high risk trades the least. There are trade management suggestions for open positions and profit targets are offered for your consideration but I would advise you to adjust recommendations to suit your own circumstances.
Remember the key to making money in trading does not require taking numerous trades; rather the best way to make money is to take multiple contracts on the most promising trades. Note: CPR trades do not account for slippage; therefore your actual fills might be slightly different than those reported here.
Here's to your success!
Erich
erich@tradershelpingtraders.com
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Position Trades
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1: CURRENCIES
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March Australian Dollar ADH1
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The Aussie Dollar stalled a bit as we got closer to resistance on Wednesday. We still haven't hit our profit target, and I might be jumping the gun, but I'll sleep better having my stops at breakeven for Thursday.
CONTINUATION of Long 2 March Australian Dollar at 9950 (February 1)
Exit Stop: 9950 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract
Profit Target: 10140 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1900 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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March British Pound BPH1
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The Pound also slowed a bit, but here we're already at breakeven so I'm sleeping just fine. Don't be shy about protecting more profit. Just look what happened the last time we traded here.
CONTINUATION of Long March British Pound at 16000 (January 31)
Exit Stop: 16000 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract
1st Profit Target: 16150 (February 2)
Approximate Profit: $937 per contract
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March Canadian Dollar CDH1
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FLAT - Ooops, the CD ran away from us. I'll have to wait for the next signal.
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March EuroFX ECH1
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FLAT
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March Japanese Yen JYH1
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FLAT
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December Swiss Franc SFZ0
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FLAT
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March US Dollar Index DXH1
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Support has come back awfully quick after the strong move lower to start the week. We're also trading near impressive support levels so I might try a short term BUY if there is a retracement.
If the US Dollar Index opens at or below 77690
BUY 2 US Dollar Index at 77700 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 77000 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $700 per contract
Profit Target: 78700 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1000 per contract
Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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April mini-Natural Gas @QGJ1
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The Natural Gas trade got a momentum boost Wednesday so it's looking quite promising for Thursday.
If April mini-Natural Gas opens at or below 4495
BUY 2 April mini-Natural Gas at 4500 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 4300 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $500 per contract
Profit Target: 4700 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $500 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate
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3: GRAINS
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March Canola RSH1
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FLAT
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March Corn CH1
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FLAT
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March Oats OH1
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FLAT
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March Soybean Meal SMH1
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FLAT
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March Soybean Oil BOH1
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FLAT
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March Soybean SH1
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FLAT
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March Wheat WH1
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FLAT
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4: MEATS
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March Feeder Cattle FCH1
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And that is exactly why we want to get the trade to breakeven ASAP.
Feeder's quick reversal makes it appear as though the Bulls have lost their grip on the market. How the market deals with support at 12450 will tell us what to expect next. Either way we're on hold for a bit.
COMPLETION of Long March Feeder Cattle at 126.15 (January 26)
Exit Stop: 126.15 (February 2)
Approximate Profit: $0 per contract
1st Profit Target: 128.15 (January 31)
Approximate Profit: $1000 per contract
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April Live Cattle LCJ1
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FLAT
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April Lean Hogs LHJ1
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FLAT
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5: METALS
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March Copper HGH1
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FLAT
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April Gold GCJ1
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Watch List - Still slightly Bearish on Gold. Still looking for a possible sell, but not at these prices.
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March Silver SIH1
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FLAT
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6: SOFTS
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July Cocoa CCN1
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Watch List - Cocoa's slowing as it runs headlong into long term resistance. I considered SELLing it for Thursday below Wednesday's low, but that was just a little too risky for me. Of course now that I've admitted it publicly the bottom will fall out of the market....
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March Coffee KCH1
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FLAT
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March Cotton CTH1
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FLAT
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March OJ OJH1
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FLAT
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March Sugar SBH1
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FLAT
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Day Trading Support and Resistance Lines
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March mini-Russell TFH1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
798.5
797.0
795.0
792.5
790.0
783.5
782.0
780.0
777.0
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March mini-S&P ESH1
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Support and Resistance Lines:
1304.00
1302.00
1296.50
1294.50
1292.00
1286.00
1274.00
1271.00
1268.00
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Commodity Pick Report is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net
Copyright (c) 2003 - 2011 Traders Helping Traders.net.
10 - 6078 Truesdale Street, Duncan, British Columbia, V9L 0B4
(250)748-9242 (Pacific Time Zone)
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My Lawyer Made Me Say
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Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources that Commodity Pick Report believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any dollar amount quoted is exclusive of commissions and fees.
CFTC Rule 4.41
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to ensure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability.
By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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