Support and Resistance Trading Forum

Trade the Tape, Not the Prognosis *PIC*
By:Asher
Date: 7/21/2010, 8:44 am

BS"D

DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT

Good morning,

Good thing we Trade the Tape and Not the Prognosis, 'cause Tuesday was
neither a "Breather nor a Plunge"!

Lots of Bull action, from Pivot Level to Pivot Level, and we took a few
decent bites. Yum!

Enjoy and be well,

******************************

E-mini ES U0
Tuesday July 20, 2010

Morning session opens gap-down below the S1 and trades back up to retest.

1 = 2-bar Reversal completes on the 3rd candle. The backlash (long top wick) of the kickoff candle,
following a Black Volume Bar of Death, pretty much cancels the signal. No difference, as it is a trap
and the move now reverses.

2 = 2-bar/123 pulls us in aggressively above the S1. Initial stop under S1.

A = Failed test of MA/Second healthy white candle closes above LowW. Per our stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop under the LowW.

Price Action stalls for a long, ulcer-filled 45 minutes.

B = Large white candle. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop tighter, under the low of the
candle.

C = Failed test of MA. PMT stop rules say to move the profit-locking stop under the MA.

D = DVS (pink arrow, exhaustion sign) drives a large white candle through the Close/Pivot, and vaguely
exits the fog. Stop rules say, profit-locking stop under the Pivot, where we are promptly taken out.
+/- 5 points

3 = Surely this is a Reversal. Maybe a Double Doji Sandwich? Tape shows lunchtime Volume already, so
we don't want to enter into the sideways drift.

4 = 123 Continuation "S" Signal through the Close/Pivot complex. No Supporting Volume.

E = Hello! Volume comes to life (pink arrow), and Price Action breaks loose pulling us in. Scoot the
stop under the red 50% Fib Retracement line.

F = DVS (pink arrow) drives a small breakaway gap and a giant white candle. Position is in PMT Maximum
Profit Giveback (MPG) violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

G = Volume surges with a DVS (pink arrow) pumping a large white candle through the R1. Per PMT stop
rules, move the profit-locking stop under the R1.

H = Large white candle puts our position back in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

NOTE: Twin Towers DVS pattern (pink arrow) indicates a Stall/Sag/Retest is
coming. ABS is greater than 62% of = H, so prepare to jump early. No need
to give it ALL back! +/- 5.75 points

5 = A Reversal and a pair of 123 kickoffs, each higher than the previous (lavender line). Too bad
there's no Volume confirmation.

J = Just in time to get in under the PMT entry clock, DVS (pink arrow) pumps a failed test of MA,
pulling us in and permitting us to advance the stop under the MA, for well-controlled At Risk.

K = Scared a bit by the S-trap, so let's stretch it a bit and call this a large white candle. Move the
profit-locking stop under the low of the candle.

L = DVS (pink arrow, late in the move this implies exhaustion) generates a large white Spinning Top
(also an exhaustion sign) through the MidM. Ideally, Pivot Scalp exit as the Price Action taps on R2
and retracts. +/- 3.25 points
Second choice is to assume the Momentum will continue north and to move the profit-locking stop under
the MidM.

N = Second strategy (not for good ole risk-conservative me) actually scored, as Twin Towers (pink arrow)
pumped a large white candle through the R2 to test the 62% Fibonacci Retracement Level (purple line) and
retract.

Stop rules say, move the profit-locking stop under the R2. However, Twin Towers indicates stall/sag/retest,
which, with today's ABS is almost sure to hit the stop. Exit Now! +/- 4.25 points (got positive slippage
no less!)

EOD, Price Action stalls at the purple 62% Fib, atop the R2.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)

Tuesday taped a very large white Bull Dragonfly day candle; bridging the
50-62% Fib Retracement Levels (red-purple line). Definitely not a breather,
and more definitely not a plunge!

Sure looks like the Bull Retracement may continue.

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Pivot Point Daytrading Course
http://www.tradingthingys.com/PMTJ/Commodity%20Day%20Trading.html

Tuesday's PMT Chart:

ONLINE COMMODITIES TRADING