Support and Resistance Trading Forum

Re: David Bennett trading grains futures
By:Erich
Date: 1/1/2010, 5:11 pm

Sorry Stu, doesn't look like anyone's got any feedback for you. For what it's worth (and not having read the book), I would surmise from the title that the author will be teaching you some of the grain fundamentals for learning to trade the grains, but as I said, this is just a guess.

If you want to learn the grain fundamentals let me suggest Scott Barrie's site GrainGuide.com (http://www.grainguide.com/index.htm). Scott's the most fluent fundamental trader I know and his GrainGuide is invaluable if you're into knowing about reports, yields, etc. Another excellent resource is the USDA website (http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usdahome)

The problem I have with trading fundamentals is understanding them. The guys in the grain pits live and breath bushels and weather forecasts, but it's a tough thing for the novice to wrap their heads around, especially since the pit boys (and girls) get the reports much sooner than we do, which means that you'll probably have to be a longer term position trader to trade this way... not that there's anything wrong with that, it just means you'll have larger risk positions and longer term views of the market.

The other problem with the reports/fundamentals is that they are all based on market perception. For instance, if you're watching Wheat and the forecast says that "2009/2010 supplies are at 2983 million bushels..." is that good, or bad? Well, it depends on what traders were "expecting" supplies to be. You see, it's all relative. If the estimate is light, then prices go up, if the estimate is generous, then prices come down. But you have to be able to discern that, and unless you're watching these things closely, you probably won't be able to.

Which brings me to technical trading. This is how I, and probably 90% of traders trade, by looking at charts. We assume that everything relevant to the market is factored into the price chart and we make our trades off that. The upshot is that it is easier to learn and you're able to trade real time if you like, which are two distinct disadvantages to fundamental trading. And in the long run, I think it's more effective.

Richard Dennis, one of the greatest grain traders ever, made his fortune by trading a simple channel breakout not by learning the market fundamentals.

Just my two cents,

Erich

Responses To This Message

Re: David Bennett trading grains futures
deadlydoggy -- 1/1/2010, 6:27 pm
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