BS"D
As we predicted, FOMC hysteria initially drove Price Action in the
direction illogical to a rational consumer, testing the 50% Fib
Retracement Level, even stretching to tap on the recently exited
LT SW Channel Floor (blue line). Ultimately, the day closed bearish,
atop the Fibonacci 62% Retracement Level (red line).
The tape once again hints that the Bears are set to dive (Phase
Three of our repeated PERSPECTIVE section predictions).
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DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
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E-mini
Wedneday November 04, 2009
Wednesday morning opens gap-up at the R2. Price Action dips, but reverses mid air for a second assault at the PL.
FOMC morning usually has one good move before going into pre-report paralysis. This may be it.
1 = Wild, giant, 10:00 Action Time candle completes a 2-candle 123 through the R2. DVS (pink arrow) permits
aggressive entry. Initial stop under R2.
A = Large white candle puts our position in violation of Pivot Magic Trading (PMT) Maximum Profit Giveback (MPG)
rules. Mental stop at Giveback level.
B = Large white candle spikes through the 50% Fib Retracement Level (Daily, bottom chart, red line) and retracts,
taping the telltale elongated upper wick failing Momentum indicator. Per PMT stop rules, move the profit-locking
stop under the low of the candle.
C = Small exhaustion gap, as Price Action pops through the re-enforced R3 completes an average white candle. The
position is in MPG violation, with no PMT stop appropriate, we are forced to exit. Positive slippage,
+/- 4.50 points
2 = Numerous possible signals (a couple of 123's [orange arrows] for example) precede lunchtime droopy, sideways
drift. Interestingly, there is no Trading Volume already at 10:40 AM. We pass.
X = Could these (blue arrows) be TELLs?
D = The silence is deafening. Suddenly, as the FOMC announcement is made, hysteria bursts across the tape.
Massive Volume (pink arrow) and wild Price Action flash illogically bullish, then southward and back again. Price
Action rebounds for longer than usual, ultimately stretching north to tap on the recently exited LT Trend Channel
Floor (Daily, bottom chart, blue line).
3 = Doji Sandwich archway through the re-enforced R3. No particular Volume, so, remembering our possible TELL
(= X), we wait for the signal to complete.
E = Retest of the R3, and we are pulled in on what turns out to be a very large Spinning top.
Only the rock-hard MA Resistance keeps us in this trade. EOC Hiccup Time is approaching. Switch to a mental stop
and prepare to exit.
F = What's this?!? Volume comes to life (pink arrow), blasting a giant red candle through the R2. Per our stop
rules, excitedly (no rule for that) jump the profit-locking stop down above the R2.
G = Volume continues to boom, generating a giant red Spinning top. Spinning top candles generally imply waning
Momentum. The Position is in MPG violation, so we are relieved to place a mental stop at Giveback Level. Prepare
for possible Pivot Scalp exit at R1/62% Fib Retracement (red line).
H = Volume seems undaunted. Giant red candle rips through the double (R1 and red line) Support. PMT stop rules
tell us to move the profit-locking stop above the R1.
J = Large, red, inverted (Bull) Dragonfly candle stretches to the High and retracts. Per our stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle. Six red candles in a row, so we are not surprised when the
elongated bottom wick warns of exhaustion.
Prepare to implement our Pivot Scalp exit techniques.
Lower-Low-Turns-White taps on the Close and retracts > 2 points. That's three Exit Now! Signals. This move is
over. Ideally, we got out very near the bottom (+/- 10.50 points), but with all the alarms going off, we surely
got out somewhere close.
EOD Hiccup "V" (plum lines) bounces at the right edge of the Hiccup Zone, with Price Action passing through, and
closing just above, the R1-red line.
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)
Although the day candle shows as a small white Bear Dragonfly, the day-session candle,
though similar, tapes a red Bear Dragonfly. Either way, both are rather bleak signs
for future market recovery. The Fed only just barely managed to lift traders' spirits
for one hour.
DAYTRADERS: Make hay while you may!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Point Daytrading Course
http://www.tradingthingys.com/PMTJ/Commodity%20Day%20Trading.html
Wednesday's PMT Chart:
