Support and Resistance Trading Forum

Consumer Confidence - Pivot Point to Pivot Point *PIC*
By:Asher
Date: 9/30/2009, 8:16 am

BS"D

Good morning,

As usual, Pivot Point to Pivot Point defined the days activity, with the
low Consumer confidence numbers driving the AM market. Unless you stumbled
into the huge 5-minute Bear plunge at 10:00, Tuesday, though there were
temptations, was pretty dull, and definitely not very profitable.

Now Wednesday . . . !

Enjoy and be well,

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DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
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E-mini
Tuesday September 29, 2009

Tuesday opens at the Close, and heads north. After pausing for a mid-air breather 123, Price Action stretches
to tap on the R1.

1 = Volume is fierce (pink arrow), permitting aggressive entry as Price Action doubles back, taping a 2-bar
spike off the R1.

Whoa!

As Price Action plunges through the High, Close, and MidW, we first drop our stop above the High, and then
above the Close. Another few points south and we start considering our first rule:
"ANY TIME YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING, GET OUT!"

By the time Price Action recaptures > 2 points of profits, we have already exited. +/- 5.75 points

What was that?!? Hard to believe that low Consumer confidence numbers sent the market plummeting, but there ya
have it!

Price Action now turns (permanently?) sideways in the "green fog" Ambush Zone. A large double 123 tapes through
the Close, but we are still panting from 10:00.

2 = Doji spike Sandwich off the Pivot. The Price Window to the Close is too small for PMT entry, plus, the move
doesn't take ever off.

3 = Large white Bull Dragonfly signals reversal off the Pivot. This time the Price Window is large enough to
enter, but the BBs are out to lunch so we doubt the move will achieve the Close.

4 = Might observe the same lack of Volume once again (with the same "pass" conclusion as in = 3), but this the
tape presents a failed TTT. The Failed TTT Corollary, plus the pull of the Close make this a possible Pivot Scalp
attempt, for advanced, experienced traders only.

Let's take the trade (otherwise there is nothing at all to discuss today!)

A = Pulled in above the MA with initial stop advancing under the low of the candle. Noticing that the next
(small white) candle is a failed test of the MA, move the profit-locking stop under the MA for virtually no
At risk.

B = Volume has remained dormant, so all these long top wicks warn readers of the tape that the move may/will
soon fade. Prepare for a Pivot Scalp exit. Calling on our PMT pre-emptive 3-5 Pivot Scalp Stop Rule, advanced
traders move the profit-locking stop to "free trade".

C = Large (relatively large) white candle. Per aggressive application of our PMT stop rules (as is appropriate
in a Scalp trade), advance the stop under the low of the candle.

D = A bit of a DVS (pink arrow) pumps a white candle through the Close. Is this the end of our move, or will
Volume now surge? Long top wick makes us doubters. Mental stop (for quick exit, requiring no Cancel-Replace
maneuver) under the Close.

Next candle is a Higher-High-Turns-Red (back inside the Ambush Zone fog), and that's a PMT Exit Now! Signal.
+/- 3.75 points

Volume does NOT resume. Instead, Price Action rolls over sideways in the fog for another hour and a half.
Price Action blips briefly south, but quickly returns to the safety of the "green fog".

EOD Hiccup (plum lines) Time, and the BBs offload their remaining positions, with the resulting Price Action
diving to a close against the Pivot.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)

We got the breather day (small red Bear Dragonfly) that we expected in yesterday's
commentary. Not enough range to have really scored much profit on Tuesday.

A retest of the Fibonacci 50% Retracement level (red dashed line) still looks likely.
Hope it happens soon, cause, as long-term students know, I go offline for the week
of Succot (next week), and we all could use the extra dough!

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Pivot Point Daytrading Course
http://www.tradingthingys.com/PMTJ/Commodity%20Day%20Trading.html

Tuesday's PMT Chart:

ONLINE COMMODITIES TRADING