Support and Resistance Trading Forum

Pivot Points Spot on Again *PIC*
By:Asher
Date: 9/16/2009, 6:00 am

BS"D

Spot on as usual; our Pivot Points defined the Tuesday's trading
battlefront topography.

In yesterday's PMTJournal, PERSPECTIVE section, we projected:

" . . . Don't be fooled by the large white Bull Dragonfly day candle:
* Virtually entire candle below the LT Thin Line Trend Channel Floor.
* Long tail of candle droops well below the red line (Historical S/R).
Though this may turn into a Bull recovery, in the meantime, it is still
only a stall, which may equally well be the start of a longer stall, or
even a Bear retracement. . ."

We called that one. Would really have rather been profitable than right

Expecting Bears on Wednesday.

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DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
******************************

E-mini
Tuesday September 15, 2009

Session opens slightly gap-up. Price Action mid-air reverses, and heads into the fog to close the gap.

1 = A Continuation ("S") Signal of the Close. We'd rarely take such a signal, but Price action blasts the
breakout immediately free of the "green fog". Volume is massive (DVS, pink arrow).

Sorry, but from entry position the Price Window to the (always considered proven) Pivot is too small.

NOTE: There are of course, many higher-risk traders who would
enter aggressively (even early, as Price Action exits the fog)
into a slightly smaller Price Window than we accept. PMTers
would advise that they would be wise to do so only with a strict
commitment to a Pivot Scalp exit-when-touched.

2 = Double Bottom of the Pivot, completing with a "P" Signal white Bull Dragonfly spiking through the Pivot
to tap and kickoff from the Historical S/R (Daily, bottom chart, red line). Slingshot of the MA, with the
plunger pulled way back.

Resistance at the Close is nominally proven (= 1), but this most inviting signal is tight against the Pivot.
In fact, the tape only presents a smaller than acceptable Price Window for a PMT Scalp entry, and we pass.

PRACTICE ONLY - HOW WE WOULD HAVE PIVOT SCALP TRADED THE SIGNAL, IF . . .

A = Pulled in on a large white Spinning Top kickoff candle. Initial stop advances under the Pivot, for
reduced At Risk (PMT good Money Management rules).

B = Twin Towers DVS (pink arrow) pumps a giant white candle well through the MA. Scalp trading is done in
the aggressive mode, so call it a failed test of MA and jump the profit-locking stop under the MA.

PREPARE: A Twin Towers is a virtually infallible indicator.
We know that a stall/sag is next. Use a mental stop.

Next candle is a Black Volume Bar of Death Doji dagger spiking through the Close. Pivot Scalp exit as Close
is hit. Got the whole bite: +/- 2.75 points

Price Action now tapes an hour-long sine wave stitching the Close.

3 = Could be a tradable "S" Signal, but mid-lunchtime (and funky Volume) warn us off. Gotta let it pass.

4 = Here we have one of our favorite oddities, a "P" Signal, preceded by a trend, off the MA; and that's a
PMT "S" Entry Signal. Mid-lunchtime however, we let it go, ultimately missing the move of the day.

C = Two Volume crescendos (pink arrows) were sufficient to waft Price Action all the way to the R1, without
us. Sigh!

5 = Failed Third Time Through (TTT)/Head and Shoulders (both exciting PMT signal patterns) off the recently
exited LT Trend Channel Floor re-enforced R1. Three hits on our Pivot Point.

D = Volume booms (pink arrow), and we get pulled in. For lowered At Risk, initial stop advances above the
HighW. Elongated bottom wick is worrisome, but not fatal.

Next candle is a low-Volume white Spinning Top. Again a slow down, but not necessarily fatal.

E = Black Volume Bar of Death (pink arrow) Doji, for three stall indicators in a row. Starting to look fatal.
First sign of white on the next candle is a PMT Exit Now! Signal. SCRATCH! +/-1 point

3:00 passes with Price Action struggling with HighW Resistance. We are now mercifully out of the picture
and shut down our monitors with time left in the day to do someone a kindness.

EOD closes almost where the session opened, for another breather day.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)

Well, Tuesday the tape presented us a white Spinning Top, another
breather candle - Also another white candle in a row. That's eight.
At a minimum, Wednesday's day candle may be expected to:
* Test the red line.
* Close red.

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Pivot Point Daytrading Course
http://www.tradingthingys.com/PMTJ/Commodity%20Day%20Trading.html

Tuesday's PMT Chart:

ONLINE COMMODITIES TRADING