Support and Resistance Trading Forum

Re: Day Trading/Fibo
By:Shifu the ONE NOW
Date: 7/10/2009, 10:39 pm
In Response To: Re: Day Trading/Fibo *PIC* (charleydan)

Hi Charlie, if I may...

Firstly, "the average price swing size" of the ES market (emini s&p) is 5 points and 50% is 2.5 points. Been that way (avg. swing/wave size) for over 12 years now.

What you "first" indicate on your ES chart as "lost on 1-2" for the "1" is a DB (a two bar double bottom pattern) and the 2nd bar of that DB "swing" pattern is a HL (Higher Low)... caused by buying "pressure". The second part is another DB with a HL (up). So with the two DB patterns together and are spread apart, you See a WDB (Wide Double Bottom) pattern ("W").

This also applies and can also be Seen in your "lost on 1-2" ... 2 that you noted on your fine chart work.

A "W" pattern (WDB) has two below Sup. points (levels) and one Res. point at the high and is in the middle of the W pattern.

A conversely, "M" pattern (WDT) has two above Res. points (levels) and one Sup. point at the low and is in the middle of the M pattern.

They are common top and bottom patterns on any chart and form all the time.
Their "second part" of the W and M pattern is the market's ... "The First Test" of the previous Sup. or Res. level.

The first part of a W and M formation (swing fractals) is what I See as a #1B (swing Bottom Sup. point) or as a #1 T (swing Top Res. point). They all are composed of 4 Up and Down swings/waves/fractals... price swing reversal formations (Sup. and Res. levels).

I only See Use "visually", horizontal lines (levels). Not diagonal lines (angles). As the chart price are a "column scale" of price up and down "levels". And I only See and Use black price bars on a white background, for the "best Seeing Clear contrast".

So therefore and very frequently, the very beginning of a "up price swing flow" (visually) starts with a HL. And conversely, the very beginning of a "down price swing flow" (visually) starts with a LH. "WOW"... lines (key Res. and Sup. price levels).

These are what I See and Know as... price swing action "behaviors". Buying and selling "pressure/force/strength". Or price swing reversal patterns.

With are known by professional chartist and risk control managers as up and down PRICE "fractals". ( PRICE swings ~ waves). Mandelbrot.

If one Sees and trades the ES intraday day session "correctly and clearly" with BUY, SELL EXIT~REVERSE (up and down "swing trading"), the daily trade performance result will yield
an average gain of +20 points $1,000) per day session, per one lot.

The average trading activity per day session with be 12 to 18 "swing" trades. The trading W/L ratio will be 5:1 . The trading average W/L point value, will be W 2.25 ($112.50) and a L 1 point ($50 )... a shot/bet/chance/opportunity.

The trade win probability is 66.6%, If reverse instead of exit, the trade win probability can be frequently, 100 %.

I do not change my trade positions unless, the swing/wave size movement flow is a least 2 to 2.5 points.

For a prime visual example, IF YOU "See" a LH action current Res. form in it's early stage (a DT pattern) and you Sell/Short, when the 10 min bar time finishes and leaves a DT or a DT with a LH still "intact", your Sell/Short position IS GOOD ! (the tick remains "below" the Res. (horizontal line). If the tick action "breaks above" the Res. point then the Sell/Short position IS NO GOOD ! Then quickly ONE CLICK "REVERSE" to a Long/Buy position, because "IT" WILL BE OR IS A NEW HH PRICE (Higher High) TICK ACTION. (price flow continuation).

So therefore you have a 3 out of 3 (100% covered) flexible trade senario probability.
This is regarded as intraday swing trading.

YES, market price swing tops and swing bottoms (Res. and Sup. levels/lines) can "be had" $$$, if Seen and are Done Correctly.

This offers a consistent trading production of small losses and larger gains (visual trade up and down price swing and risk control management methodology).

Sorry for my poor english writing skills.

And thank you Charlie for sharing your time, long experience and fine chart works, 1.61"8" Sir.

Shifu the ONE NOW.

Responses To This Message

Questions to Understanding *PIC*
charleydan -- 7/11/2009, 9:21 am
Re: Day Trading/Fibo
charleydan -- 7/11/2009, 6:33 am
ONLINE COMMODITIES TRADING