Certainly seems so ... but ... how about that's only one of four possibilities. You have the buy of a break out of the channel at about 199.30 OR the sell of a failure there. You have the buy on a failed retest of 197.50 or the sell of a break of the bottom edge of the channel at 197.50 as well.

Betting it will bounce off the 197.50 support forming the bottom edge of the channel is not a bad bet since you could justify placing a short stop just below the bottom edge of the channel ... say 196.90 or .95 for the heavy risk takers and at 197.47 for those who follow my approach. The buy on the break out the top of the channel at 200.50 is a more risky matter as the more traditional appraoch would be to place the stop below the channel. Of course you know where mine would go ... yup ... about 200.47 and an expected fill at ... say ... 200.55

Seeing the four possibilities keeps us out of the directional bias trap. We can now listen to the market whisper to us its real true intent by observing the price flow and reacting as opposed to placing orders which can only profit if we guess correctly. Always dangerous, I believe. The act of seeing the 4 instead of 1 or two is also good for the discipline as we go into the process with eyes wide open seeing 4 possible outcomes on both sides which keeps us, I believe, from marrying the single upside view. Just thinking outloud.