To me, the most difficult problem about trading commodities is dealing with the noise, the daily swings in price that are magnified relative to a margined account. This is a major factor about what makes it so difficult to let those profits run. So, I'm coming around to the idea expressed at this forum by Erich, Tom, and probably Rob as well. That being "Shorten the time frame" or, as Tom seems to express it, "Ambush the trade". It makes sense to me. If I can't eliminate the noise, maybe I can at least trade it. And I am finding via paper trading that, by paying attention to areas of support and resistance, I'm often correct about the direction of the near-term price move, but uncertainty increases as time moves away from the setup point. So, for now at least, I'm thinking that the best advice I've received is to forget about home runs and instead to strive for consistent short-term profits. It's not my favorite advice, given the wonderful runs that often occur, but I have to admit it's probably the best advice, if I want to stay in the game!