Treasury prices continued to rise sharply in the face of ongoing
pain in the equity markets. The talk of recession is so pervasive that
sharply lower oil and physical commodity prices aren't even seen
as a benefit to the economy. There was some positive earnings
news today that was totally overlooked by a market looking only
for negative economic news.
Shortly after the open I sold 122-14 as -16 broke. Prices sank
to 122-05 and I rolled my stop to -07 where I was stopped out
moments later with 9 ticks for $281. I sold 122-14 a second time.
I rolled my stop to B/E when we touched -11 and I was stopped
out at 122-17 losing 3 ticks or $94. I missed selling the break
below -16 that happened at about 8:30. It just dropped too fast.
I finally caught up with price flow and sold at 121-29. I exited
at 121-19 pocketing $312. Bonds stayed just above -16 not giving
me a shot at the buy off -16. I bought 122-03 off the break out
above 122-00. I exited at B/E since I'd rolled my stop there
after we tapped on -09. I bought 122-03 a second time and
caught a bit of move. I exited at 122-19 using "OB" theory for
$500.
I finished out the day selling 122-14 on a near perfect -16 setup
I exited at 121-22 for $750. A nice way to close out the day. I do
NOT like to trade the final hour of Bonds. I let it drift over the
final hour mark because it was going our way with some momentum.
I couldv'e exited at 122-01 or so as we backtracked to break
122-00 after slipping lower. Thta's what we call a "once broken"
play. A significant number gets broken heading in our direction
then turns and goes back to break the number in the opposite
direction against us. This called a "Once broken " play and you'll
see me use it frequently. It makes exits almost mechanical in nature.
The more I think about and analize the worse decisions I make.
One of my major, major concepts is getting my actions as close to
mechanical as I can. Particularly on exits which always were hard
lessons to learn for me. Now, I exit and never, ever second guess
my exit decisions and OB Theory is the primary reason why. Once
the price flow broke below 122-00 at about 12:55 I made a promise
to myself. The promise was having broken below 122-00 if the Bonds
trade back above the once broken 122-00 price level I want to be
gone from the short trade. This supply's me with a perfectly reasonable
justification I can use to explain to the analyst why I exited his
extremely well thought out trade. He'll never second guess me either
which allows us the work together so cohesively. Yeah, I know, I
AM both the analyst and trade executor. Make those split personalities
work for ya' ladies and gents. That was a $1750 day in the Bonds.
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2: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH8 O=9722 HI=9772 LO=9681 CL=9702
I'll stay with the weekend guidance. Not happy about it but I'll
stay. There were 3 $500 moves in the market and I can't catch a
one.
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3: MARCH SWISS FRANC
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SFH8 O=9157 HI=9209 LO=9111 CL=9177
I sold 9177 twice and broke even on both. The Swiss has become
thee currency leader as a safe haven. I need to see some structure
build
We'll stay with the weekend numbers.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH8 O=671.50 HI=696.10 LO=648.40 CL=694.60
Some nice earnings, lower physical commodity prices, particularly
crude, still failed to get the focus off a recession. We opened
with a weak tone but managed to climb back all the way to positive
by mid session. I missed the buy at 648 by a whisker. I had to wait
out a move to 665 where I bought at 665.50 and exited at 681.60
for $1765. I bought 672.60 and exited at 677.50 for $490. Bought
672.50 and exited at 674.80 for $230. I closed out the day after
this trade.
Cotinue on with the numbers from the weekend edition.
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5: MARCH MINI $5 DOW
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EYMH8 O=11967 HI=12300 LO=11634 CL=12272
Some structure is beginning to build in the south but we're not
there yet. I did nothing here today.
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6: FEBRUARY GOLD
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GCG8 O=893.50 HI=896.50 LO=876.60 CL=883.10
Gold is kinda' hard to figure right now. You'd think a whole lot of
flight to quality should be going on yet we have seem to have more
sellers than buyers. The Dollar's strength of late is undermining
the Gold too, I think. I didn't get a confirmation I could trust until
I bought 881.50 and exited at 892.70 for a quick $1120. I sold
888.50 and exited at 880.30 for $820. I was done.
$10 channel for tomorrow.
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The Daily Update is a publication of Daytrading by Ambush
http://www.daytradingbyambush.com
tom.mostlikely@verizon.net
Copyright (c) 2008 daytradingbyambush
========================================================
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves
significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your
own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation
of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before
making any trade to insure current prices, margin requirements and
other factors determinant to suitability. By reading this publication
you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments
of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein
to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make
your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some
of which are described below. No representation is being made that
any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those
shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical
performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any
particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they
are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition,
hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical
trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk
in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular
trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which
can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general
or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot
be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance
results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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