This is going to be a very interesting watch. Traders are basically
saying "nice try" but yawning at the attempts of the President and
the Treasury to ward off the recession. The powers that be missed
a golden opportunity to nip this in the bud but miscalculated again.
What's new. 75 basis points weren't enough. They'll do more at
month end but the die is cast. Some really, really positive news needs
to surface to turn the tide of the bulls in the equity markets of
course that means the bulls rule the Bonds. I think we could easily
see 125-00 before the dust settles. Knowing the equity markets
probably wouldn't produce much today, The Bonds were my main
focus.
We didn't press -16 early on and I wouldn't trade the quarter at
-24 as my first trade so I was forced to wait for either a return
to -16 or an advance above -00 I was pretty sure I knew which
it would be.
The actions of the markets, the administration and the FED have
really changed the dynamic and rendered most of my weekend
comments invalid. I bought the break above 12-00 at 120-03 and
exited at 120-15 on "OB" theory as we dropped below 120-16 for
a gain of $375. I then sold 120-14 and exited at 120-05 for $281.
I bought 120-03 and exited at 119-29 giving back a loss of $187.
I again bought 120-03 and exited at 120-19 for $500.
The Bonds were quite docile and, with rare exceptions, made its
moves in a pretty orderly fashion.
========================================================
2: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDH8 O=9733 HI=9789 LO=9631 CL=9734
WE saw the market flirt with the lower edge of
our numbers late in the day. Too late to do
anything with in my opinion - I let it go. Same
guidance from the weekend edition continues.
========================================================
3: MARCH SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFH8 O=9115 HI=9162 LO=9008 CL=9124
Given what's was going on in the world Tuesday
we certainly didn't expend much brain power
to figure out the Swiss would more than likely
be up ... at least early on. No surprise we opened
above 9100. We rose to 9140 and then broke
back below 9120. I sold 9117. We made it down
to 9098 where it turned. I used "OB" theory
to exit at 9103 for $170.
We'll stay with the weekend
numbers.
========================================================
4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTH8 O=675.40 HI=685.80 LO=637.50 CL=671.50
By the time the RTH opened the blood letting was over and the equity
markets started clawing back off the lows. I let the first retest of
648 pass. The Russell retraced to 647 and then started climbing.
I bought 648.50 and exited at 664.70 on an "OB" play off 665
for $1620. I bought again as we broke above 665 getting filled at
665. 50 and exiting at 681.80 for another 1630. The big failure
that started about 10:30 caught me a bit by surprise. I sold 671. 70
and was stopped out at 673.30 losing $160. I closed up shop at
this point.
Same numbers for tomorrow. I think the tone will be weak again.
========================================================
5: MARCH MINI $5 DOW
========================================================
EYMH8 O=12106 HI=12143 LO=11456 CL=11951
Just as in the Russell, all the damage was done in the early morning
hours and then the DOW fought back off the lows of the day. I
left this market alone today and will continue to let structure build
before I try anything here.
========================================================
6: FEBRUARY GOLD
========================================================
GCG8 O=882.00 HI=895.60 LO=849.50 CL=890.30
You knew Gold would be very volatile today given the stock market
and economy issues. My game plan was to let Gold open, watch and
try to pick off a little here and there as the smoke cleared. In 15
minutes of the open we traded almost a $20 range. Up, down and
up again. By the time I judged it was safe we didn't get any setups
I deemed tradeable. You hate to watch $3000 days and not get any.
As regards us, they didn't get anything either. Sometimes that's
a good day
$10 channel for tomorrow.
========================================================
========================================================
The Daily Update is a publication of Daytrading by Ambush
http://www.daytradingbyambush.com
tom.mostlikely@verizon.net
Copyright (c) 2008 daytradingbyambush
========================================================
RISK DISCLOSURE!
Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves
significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your
own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.
Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation
of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before
making any trade to insure current prices, margin requirements and
other factors determinant to suitability. By reading this publication
you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments
of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein
to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make
your own decision.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some
of which are described below. No representation is being made that
any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those
shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical
performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any
particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they
are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition,
hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical
trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk
in actual trading.
For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular
trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which
can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general
or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot
be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance
results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
========================================================