Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 7/25/06

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Traders Helping Traders Market Update
for Tuesday, July 25, 2006
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http://www.supportandresistance.com
"Fall seven times, stand up eight." ~Japanese Proverb
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU6
The AD continued to flounder today. If you brought stops to breakeven then you're currently flat, if you had them below Friday's low then you're still short. It's a tough call, but if you're going to give it a run leave the stops where they are.

September British Pound BPU6
The Pound took a breather today. If we see more of the same tomorrow I'll look for support and another chance to buy.

September Canadian Dollar CDU6
Of course the CD would drop off today after stopping us out a few days ago. This move also casts some doubt over the AD position as these markets often move together.

September EuroFX ECU6
Right idea but the opening gap voided our short position. Still on the lookout for another chance.

*SELL September EuroFX at 126.49
*Exit Stop: 127.03
*Approximate Risk: $675 per contract
*Profit Target: 123.31
*Potential Profit: $3975 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Japanese Yen JYU6
The Yen also fell off today and put the market back near the support lines we were watching last week. The thing I like about the Yen is that the trend is still pretty solid to the downside, so I feel a little better about selling it.

*SELL September Japanese Yen at 8607
*Exit Stop: 8653
*Approximate Risk: $575 per contract
*Profit Target: 8327
*Potential Profit: $3500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Mexican Peso MPU6
It might be a little early to be buying the Peso again, but the market did show us support today as rates bounced near the 91000 line. I'll look to buy a breakout higher tomorrow. I wanted to buy above 92000, but I couldn't get the numbers to jive, so we're going to be a little more aggressive.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 91.925
*Exit Stop: 91.250
*Approximate Risk: $337 per contract
*Profit Target: 93.975
*Potential Profit: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Swiss Franc SFU6
Right idea in the Swiss Franc as well, but the market gapped our entry in a big way voiding our short trade. Disappointing to say the least.

September US Dollar Index DXU6
The USD moved higher on a gap today. I "should' be buying tomorrow, but I'm going to hold.

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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU6
I was hoping that Unleaded would get closer to the RSI testpoint before the next rally, but after today's session it looks like it doesn't want to wait.

September Heating Oil HOU6
A small hook off the RSI testpoint is making me cautiously bullish in Heating Oil tomorrow. I'm going to buy above the 205.75 - 205.80 resistance line and cover the trade below intermediate support around 203.20. On the downside I'm shorting today's low and covering around the 202.00 resistance.

It's too bad this market is so expensive. I would have liked to have "loosened" things up a bit.

*BUY September Heating Oil at 206.05
*Exit Stop: 203.15
*Approximate Risk: $1218 per contract
*Profit Target: 215.95
*Potential Profit: $4158 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL September Heating Oil at 199.40
*Exit Stop: 202.10
*Approximate Risk: $1134 per contract
*Profit Target: 190.55
*Potential Profit: $3717 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Crude Oil CLU6
Crude is still at the RSI test and we got a bit of a hook today so we'll run the weekend buy order again tomorrow.

*BUY September Crude Oil at 7555
*Exit Stop: 7495
*Approximate Risk: $600 per contract
*Profit Target: 7945
*Potential Profit: $3900 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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March (07) Eurodollar EDH7
The ED came down and RSI went up. Think I'll leave it alone tomorrow, but I'd still like to short it.

September mini-DOW YMU6
What a fickle market. If you brought stops to breakeven it didn't hurt too badly today; otherwise you're out with a loss. Nothing here tomorrow.

September mini-NAS NQU6
The NAS had the greatest downward momentum and now we see a rally off support! Nothing here tomorrow either.

September mini-S&P ESU6
Yuck! What an ugly day in the S&P. I hate the chop in these markets. It seems they take a long time to setup and then "poof!" it's over and back to wait-mode.

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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU6
I'll wait one more day for corn to rally a little higher so I can try to sell from a better price. This market is still looking very bearish to me right now.

September Oats OU6
Oats rallied off support as we thought; however the closing price casts a shadow of doubt over the whole bullishness of the market.

November Rice RRX6
We flipped into November this week as this market has the greater volume and open interest, and in a market like Rice every little bit helps!

Prices bounced off the contract highs today reinforcing the resistance that's there. This makes it the ideal place to buy a breakout. The market is at an RSI testpoint, so I guess the timing is right as well.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 975.5
*Exit Stop: 965.5
*Approximate Risk: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1034.5
*Potential Profit: $1180 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

September Soybean Meal SMU6
A week since our fill and today the market takes us out with a measly $280 profit on the gap open. Oh well, I guess it's better than a loss.

September Soybean Oil BOU6
Still nothing in bean oil to get too excited about.

September Soybean SU6
Nor beans.

July Wheat WN6
Wheat is winding up pretty tightly. I think we'll see a big move here this week. I'm going to give it one more day to setup. Hope I don't regret it.

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5: MEATS
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August Feeder Cattle FCQ6
A miserable way to start the week as Feeders opened gap down stopping us out for a $260 loss per contract. I'm really hoping that we'll see a reaction off the 112.75 support tomorrow. If we get that I'll short my brains out on Wednesday!

August Live Cattle LCQ6
Once again Cattle are painting a different picture as the market bounced off trendline support today. I would expect higher prices here tomorrow.

August Lean Hogs LHQ6
Things were looking so promising for our Hog trade... until today that is when prices rallied stopping us out for a small loss. We'll have to reassess. Nothing for this market tomorrow.

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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU6
We knew it was a gamble, and we had the right idea; unfortunately the market reached just a little too low for us to hold on to our limit position.

August Gold GCQ6
Gold also fudged support today; however it looks like we're going to see a rally here tomorrow.

September Silver SIU6
Silver was the most cooperative of the bunch as prices found support at 1068 today. Expecting a rally here tomorrow.

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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU6
I didn't believe Cocoa had enough left in it to poke through support without refreshing itself first. This might prove to be a false break though. We'll know tomorrow.

September Coffee KCU6
If you followed my lead you would have been stopped out in coffee today as we were unable to ride out the range. If you did as I "should" have and left the stop back, then you would have done fine and can bring the trade at least to breakeven for tomorrow.

December Cotton CTZ6
Cotton continues to charge higher. Still nothing to do but wait.

September OJ OJU6
I have to admit that I didn't see this one coming at all, although there is weekly support which likely held the market up. Good ole OJ. Rally outta nowhere. Nothing here right now.

October Sugar SBV6
And sugar is up to its old tricks again as prices rallied stopping us out at breakeven today. Nothing new here tomorrow.