Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Commodity Futures Market Update for Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Commodity Futures Market Update for Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Hot off the commodity presses to you!

"As soon as I beginning thinking of it as money, I'm sunk." - Phil Ivey, World Poker Champion

FYI -Sorry the update is late. We had a power outage here most of the day. I'll also let you know that tomorrow's update might be a little late because I'm attending a funeral. In the interest of getting this out to you ASAP I'm going to be brief in the markets we're not trading. Thanks for your understanding.


June Australian Dollar ADM6
The AD is still too choppy, but it does look like it might recommit to the downtrend.

June British Pound BPM6
We've got divergence again between RSI and where the market went. The currencies are really fumbling, but a bigger move is coming.

June Canadian Dollar CDM6
The CD had a strong day today. Look for resistance at the contract highs.

June EuroFX ECM6
A small day in the EC, it's not very committed right now.

June Japanese Yen JYM6
I'm keeping an eye on this one. I think we'll have a chance to get into it soon.

June Mexican Peso MPM6
Still fighting the contract highs, but the market's still too thin to trade.

June Swiss Franc SFM6
Got filled in our short today. Bring exit stop in above 7685, or breakeven if you prefer.

June US Dollar Index DXM6
Another fade day in the USD. If it follows through we should see something lower tomorrow. No trade right now.

April Unleaded Gas HUJ6
The Energies might be ready to head lower again for the short term. The ranges are still a little crazy though. Still watching.

April Heating Oil HOJ6
Nice range and an RSI hook off the testpoint makes it look very likely that Heating Oil will decline tomorrow. This is a tough market to trade with tight stops, but if it gets some momentum we should be able to ride it out.

*SELL April Heating Oil at 166.70
*Stop 168.55
*Approximate Risk: $777 per contract
*Profit target 159.00
*Potential Profit: $3234 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

April Crude Oil CLJ6
Same deal with Crude. Also very risky.

*SELL April Crude at 6015
*Stop 6105
*Approximate Risk: $900 per contract
*Profit target 5600
*Potential Profit: $4150 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH


September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Still hanging in our ED trade, but this market better make a move soon. Running the weekend trade tomorrow.

June mini-DOW YMM6
I'd like to see a pullback before we get too serious about buying. A trend would be nice too.

March mini-NAS NQH6
Got filled long today. You can bring stops below today's low or leave as is for one more day. Watch the open for a chance to get tighter.

March mini-S&P ESH6
I don't like the way the market "felt" resistance today on the high. Not that we're in this market but it might spill over into the NAS trade.


May Corn CK6
Corn's taken an early bounce off RSI and given us some resistance today. I'll look to buy a break tomorrow.

*BUY May Corn at 240 1/4
*Stop 236 3/4
*Approximate Risk: $175 per contract
*Profit target 251
*Potential Profit: $537 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

May Oats OK6
Look for oats to fall to trendline support tomorrow.

March Rice RRH6
Who knows? But we are at weekly support so we'll see if we get a bounce.

May Soybean Meal SMK6
Darn...keep those stops tight in case the market continues higher tomorrow. No worse than breakeven please.

May Soybean Oil BOK6
I'm tightening the trade a bit for tomorrow. You could run it "as is" from the weekend if you prefer.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2351
*Stop 2294
*Approximate Risk: $342 per contract
*Profit target 2525
*Potential Profit: $1044 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

May Soybean SK6
We're flat our Bean trade today at breakeven. Nothing here tomorrow.

May Wheat WK6
Oh-oh...I don't like the fill we got today. The good news is we've got good support, let's hope we see the rally continue tomorrow.

March Feeder Cattle FCH6
Small day in Feeders. Looking for another chance to sell...hope this wasn't it.

April Live Cattle LCJ6
Bring your exit stops in at least to breakeven for tomorrow. If you like you can also use today's high.

April Lean Hogs LHJ6
Hmmm...not sure what's going on with hogs, but I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow.

March Copper HGH6
Nuts. Right idea, but the market made a serious gap voiding our trade.

April Gold GCJ6
Gold will likely rally tomorrow IF the USD tanks. I'm just watching however.

March Silver SIH6
No idea what's up with silver.

May Cocoa CCK6
Sold cocoa today. Let's hope the entry wasn't too far away as we got filled late. You can bring stops above today's high if you like but it's better above 1470.

March Coffee KCH6
Oooooo baby baby! Nice fill in coffee today as the market tanked right from the open. A very thin day however. The best stop placement is the original, but that's a lot of money. You might consider using the 110.00 line as well.

May Cotton CTK6
Darn cotton...why didn't you move like this when I shorted you a couple of weeks ago!

Nice move in OJ but RSI dipped so we'll probably see something lower tomorrow. Bring stops at least to breakeven. You might also consider a profit order at 135.00, especially if you have more than one contract.

July Sugar SBN6
Thar she goes! It looks like sugar's top is in.