Tom's Trades for Tuesday, January 31, 2006

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, January 31, 2006

1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
USDH6 O2-14 HI2-24 LO2-10 CL2-21

You knew it would either be a day of some trending legs or nothing in advance of FOMC tomorrow. It was pretty much nothing. I did a sell and a buy both of which ended in B/E. After 30 minutes of inability to break above -24 I sold -23 and exited at -17 for 6 ticks, $187. I watched for another 45 minutes or so and packed it in.

We'll abstain tomorrow in deference to the FOMC meeting and the later release of notes. The FOMC meeting takes on more than normal interest as it is the last meeting over which Greenspan will preside. On Wednesday Ben Bernanke takes over ... known to unknown. Also adding potential fuel to the fire is an OPEC meeting. There are also several economic reports of significance throughout the day tomorrow. There is no way to make sense of RRR for tomorrow thus the decision to observe from the sidelines.

2: JUNE 06 EURODOLLAR
EDM6 O.075 HI.095 LO.070 CL.075

Nothing done today. I will sit out the ED tomorrow with the Bonds.

3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
CDH6 O=16 HI=66 LO=05 CL=35

I sold 8736 on the break of 40 and was stopped out at B/E. Sold 36 a second time and was stopped at 38 losing $20. Sold it again and stopped at 39 losing $30. I then sold 38 and exited at 32 making $10 on the day. All the TT weekend numbers for tomorrow. Be flat by 10:30 CST and stay so until the notes are released and digested.

4: MARCH SWISS FRANC
SFH6 O=31 HI=37 LO=85 CL=02

After it broke 7800 right before the open and bounced back higher I pulled the trade. We'll go again with the TT weekend numbers in the morning. We'll get flat not later than 10:30 CST and remain so the balance of the day.

5: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
ERTH6 O=4.70 HI=7.50 LO=2.30 CL=3.20

We'll add 735 and 732 to the numbers in play on Wednesday. I'll abstain trading the Russell tomorrow.

5: MARCH MINI $5 DOW
EYMH6 O941 HI949 LO903 CL918

We sold 10945 on the break of 50. We were stopped out at B/E. Given the low volume and the general pre FOMC malaise, I stepped to the sidelines for the day. I'm going to trade the DOW tomorrow. I will be flat by 10:30 CST and watch closely from there until the note are released. I may try a trade thereafter. All the TT numbers again tomorrow.

7: JUNE GOLD
GCG6 O=1.00 HI=7.00 LO=0.90 CL=5.80
GCM6 O=6.50 HI=1.20 LO=5.80 CL=0.60

Be aware that Feb Gold FND is tomorrow. We will move out to the April contract beginning with tomorrow's trade. No buys at this level. $10 Channel sells only tomorrow.

8: MARCH COTTON
CTH6 O=.63 HI=.80 LO=.92 CL=.17

We sold 55.55 and rolled twice on the way down ... to B/E at 55.45, to 55.23 as we broke 20. We exited at 55.05 as we bounced from the low of the day at 54.92 ... out with $250. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

9: MARCH COCOA
COH6 O=45 HI=80 LO=43 CL=77

We sold 47 and almost immediately got stopped out at what I thought would be B/E ... nope out at 1450 losing $30. We then bought 1456 which we exited at 1472 after the failure at 80 picking up $160. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

10: MARCH CORN
CH6 O=2.22 HI=2.22 LO=2.16 3/4 CL=2.17 3/4

I sold 2.21 ¼ and exited at 2.17 1/2 for 4 ¾ cents, $237. Later in the day we sold 2.19 ½ and exited at 2.17 ¾ grabbing another penny and ¾, $87. We'll keep on playing the same numbers from TT for the moment.

11: MARCH WHEAT
WH6 O=3.47 HI=3.49 LO=3.43 1/2 CL=3.45 ¼

I missed the first break of 3.46 trying to get the Corn done. I sold 3.46 ¼ and got stopped at B/E. I stepped away after that. We'll go with the TT numbers again tomorrow.