"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, December 13, 2005

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, December 13, 2005

TODAY IS FOMC MEETING DAY. EXIT ALL INTEREST SENSITIVE ISSUES ... BONDS, EURO$ AND CURRENCIES NOT LATER THAN 10:00 AM PST.

1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
USDH6 O-2-02 HI-2-06 LO-1-14 CL-1-25

We began the day selling 111-27. From there we made a fairly relaxed slide down to 111-14, the low of the day. I exited at 111-16 for 11 ticks, $343. That was all she wrote for today.

The close at 111-15 has us watching for an early opportunity to get something done at 112-00 or 111-16 before we back away about 10 am PST and let the FOMC take over. I will not trade again until the following day. If you're braver than I, remember the notes come out in the late afternoon and they will drive the market.

2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
EDH6 O.235 HI.240 LO.205 CL.220

We remain short the EDH6 from 95.250. ED gave us another chance to get short today if you were willing to give up $12-25 on the entry. We made some small progress as we're now up $75 gross in the trade. I'll watch how we act at .200 tomorrow. I expect it to get there and hover a bit, waffling both sides of .200. I'll bring the stop to .245 tomorrow.

3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
CDZ5 O-38 HI-96 LO-31 CL-86

Nothing here for us today as the CD showed some real strength. We'll stay focused on the same Weekend TT numbers for tomorrow. We're still good to go in DEC.

4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
SFZ5 O-66 HI-82 LO-65 CL-49

Very frustraing to see your numbers ... 7700 ... hit but so early in the morning you get get to them and then watch the RTH hours produce moves that we'd have made a tidy profit on. I'll stay with the same numbers from TT for now. Dawg gone it.

5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
ERTZ5 O-4.10 HI-7.40 LO-0.30 CL-5.10

A day full of nasty little pullbacks. Thankfully, a lot of occurred at numbers beyond the level we were willing to play. Very whippy, Skippy. Our first trade came up about 9:05 as we bought 695.40. We exited at 695.20 dropping $20. I sold 694.60 about 9:35 and exited at 694.20 making $40. I bought 695.40 just after 10 am and was out at B/E. I sold 694.70 about 11:05 and exited 691.20 ustilizing a "once broken" play for $350. I bought 691.30 about 12:40 and exited at 693.80 for $250. I ended it right there.

All the numbers from TT tomorrow

6: FEBRUARY GOLD
GCG6 OT0.00 HIT3.00 LOS0.80 CLS1.50

A big, $900 opening gap up was pretty scary to watch. The little tap on 540 was enough of a confirmation so I sold 538.40 and exited at 537.50 for $90. Late in the day I sold 538.30 and exited at 532.40 picking up $590. We ended the day at 531.50 so we'll be looking for a confirmation testing 530 and giving us an opportunity to buy as we turn higher.

It's been a long time coming. It seems as though I had jinxed the strategy when I did the CBOT seminar. Of course that's crazy talk but, hey, they do play with your mind. While I'm not going to parade through the streets declaring the $10 Channels are back, I think it is a nice reminder of the power of having a plan and sticking to it.

$10 channel again tomorrow.

7: MARCH COTTON
CTH6 O-.35 HI-.60 LO-.10 CL-.41

Speaking of opening gaps ... Cotton jumped about 60 points, extended it to about 100 and then went to sleep spending the bulk of the day in no more than a 20 point trading range. I sold 53.45 after the initial run up. I bailed at 53.35 for $50 and folded my Cotton tent for the day.

TT numbers again tomorrow.

8: MARCH COCOA
COH6 O-70 HI-92 LO-69 CL-79

We leapfrogged our number just enough to put us on the sidelines. Play the TT numbers again tomorrow. Now it's a break back below 1460 we'll trade instead of looking for a retest.

9: MARCH CORN
CH6 O-2.06 1/2 HI-2.09 1/4 LO-2.05 3/4 CL-2.07 3/4

I'm baaaack. That sure didn't take long, did it? A 4 cent advance and a strong showing for the whipping boy Corn has been of late. I really don't think this changes much. I'll sell a retest of anything near 2.10 when it fails and turns south. I will not yet buy the break above 2.10 ... biases die hard. It'll be a scalp so penny and a quarter stops and rolls.

10: MARCH WHEAT CH6 O-3.11 1/2 HI-3.15 LO-3.11 CL-3.14 3/4

I will buy the break above 3.15 or sell a failure there. Yes, a scalp so penny and quarter rules on stops and rolls.