Erich's Update for Thursday, September 29, 2005
==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, September 29, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Strange little day in the AD as prices bounced, but RSI didn't. I was really hoping we'd get a chance to buy, but now I'm still on hold. Watching the 7600 resistance.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The BP showed us some support today, which was to be expected given the very oversold nature of the market. We're likely to see at least a couple of days around this support zone. If you're still short the market bring stops to 177.47.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD gave us our RSI test today, and while we might see a break lower, I'll continue to focus on buying with the trend. There is resistance around 8560, near today's high, which I'll use to buy the market long. First profit target is long term resistance at 8750, but we could see a run all the way to 8800 if it really gets going.
*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8561
*Stop 8523
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $380 per contract
*Profit Target: 8747
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1860 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
A little bit of support at 120.50 is holding the market up for now. If we get one more day of this I'll look to sell from here. That's the plan anyway, now we'll see what the market does.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
If you brought your stops in above yesterday's close you would have been stopped out of our short trade this morning. If you're still short the market you can bring stops a little closer still to 8963.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Got stopped out on the open as the Peso traded higher. Look for rates to continue in that direction for the immediate future. I thought about buying the market above today's high, but I think I'll hold off for the moment. We've got resistance at 91.700 which could keep rates down.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
See why we exit on target? Especially with a support zone as obvious as the Swissy? Rates took a little bounce today, and while I'm not in the buying mood I would like to see them hover around here for another day or two.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
A bit of a bounce in the US Dollar today as the market held resistance at 8960. If you have stops below the 8910 resistance you're still in the trade, but just barely. Hopefully we'll see another stab at resistance tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
November Unleaded Gas HUX5
----------
Same old same old. The energy markets are still reeling from the effects of the hurricane, with each day's news worse than the last. Now it looks like at least a dozen refineries will stay off line for the short term, so look for Gas to continue to rise.
With the wicked ranges I can't bring myself to trade, but you might consider an option, or something *safe*.
----------
November Heating Oil HOX5
----------
I'm kicking myself a bit for not trading the RSI test in Heating Oil. As it turns out the breakout was a very nice one...good to know the ole hindsight is still 20/20.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Crude was the tamest of the three energies and is actually testing the downtrend line today. It will be interesting to see if we get a reversal off here.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED continues to hover near the support, but refuses to give us a good line to trade from. This market doesn't move too far without adjustment though, so hopefully we'll get something tomorrow.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
Nothing new here. This market is definitely without any trend.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Chop, chop, chop. No thanks.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P is still looking the best of the bunch, but nothing worth trying to position trade at the moment.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
What looks like a whipsaw was actually a fill in the dying moments of the day as corn briefly dipped to our 202 3/4 order. I'm never sure about the effects of getting such a late fill, but for better or worse we're short now. Leave stops where they are. First profit target is 195 1/4.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Not much to talk about in oats today as the market didn't go anywhere. This stagnant type of day won't last long however.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Yessirree, I'm beginning to be a real fan of the rice market. What a beautiful session today as prices wasted no time filling our order and rallying higher from there. Bring stops at least to breakeven, or below 724 if you prefer.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Not looking too good for our Meal trade as both price and RSI is hooking. We'll probably get stopped out tomorrow, so keep those exit stops handy.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil gave us a nice bounce off support today as well as a corresponding bounce off the RSI trendline. I'll be looking to buy the market long above today's high and covering below the 2255 support.
*BUY December Bean Oil at 2283
*Stop 2253
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2387
*Approximate Profit Potential: $624 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Soybeans backed up on us today and hooked in RSI. I'm not holding a lot of hope for our short play at the moment and expect to get stopped out tomorrow at breakeven.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat is as choppy as I've ever seen it. We'll probably be on hold here for a while yet.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
A quick about face in Feeders today as prices fell back to support. Notice too how we have another RSI test? I normally wouldn't suggest this, especially in a market like Feeders, but a retracement might be pending.
*SELL October Feeder Cattle at 113.95
*Stop 114.70
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 111.05
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Naturally Cattle is mimicking Feeders, and you could look at selling today's low, but right now one countertrend trade is enough for me.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Another late session fill as hogs found our buy order today. We can't move exit stops just yet, so hopefully we'll see another strong session tomorrow. Pretty please?
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper looks like it's starting to trend again. If we get another hesitation before the weekend I'll get more serious about buying.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Big bounce in Gold on speculated weakness in the USD. I'd like to buy, but these big ranges always make me a little gun-shy. I might sit out tomorrow and see what happens.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
This one is really tough as prices hit our entry, but only in the dying minutes of trading, so you might not have been filled. I haven't heard from the broker yet to know if I'm long, but I'd be okay if I'm not. Leave exit stops where they are for tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa went higher today as anticipated. 1400 is the place where I would look for a bounce, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee set higher support today, which is usually an indication of a new trend and the big session would suggest that higher prices might be in order...but this is coffee, so I'll stick with the original trade for now.
*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $488 per contract
*Profit Target: 8025
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
I'm looking to buy Cotton, but I'm more than a little apprehensive after today's huge session. Still watching and waiting.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ's testing support, and I'm looking to buy, but we're a touch overbought and we've got strong resistance at 102 which I'm still studying. Nothing for tomorrow.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Yep, rub a little salt in the wound why don't you?
Sugar continued higher today with another strong move. Can't buy in at the moment because it's equivalent to jumping into a moving car, and like a car we have to wait for it to stop...if only for a moment.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at Admin@OptimusFutures.com
<< Home