Erich's Update for Friday, September 30, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, September 30, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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A big opening gap right at the 7600 resistance sent the market lower today, although overall the session was higher. I don't see anything worth trading here at the moment.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The extremely oversold market continues to hover around support. I considered selling tomorrow, but will press my luck a little further. If you're still short bring stops to 176.97.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Got filled late in the day as the CD bounced off the 8500 support. You could leave stops where they are, or bring them under intraday support at 8540 - 45 to take some risk out of the trade.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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I should be looking to sell the EC tomorrow, but I'm going to hold off one more session. There's something about holding an open contract here over the weekend that doesn't sit well with me.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Today's session looks a little more promising for our short position as the market opened at the high and fell off the remainder of the day. Leave stops at 8963 for tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso got as high as 91600 today which brings it into range to test the 91700 resistance tomorrow. This could be the last chance for the bears to turn the market again.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swissy continues to hover at support. Like the EC I really should be selling a breakout tomorrow, but I'll hold off. I hope the market stays put for one more day!
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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If the USD didn't tag you out yet, the market would have gotten you today as rates ranged a little more than expected. It's not all bad though, as we walk with over $400 in profit per contract. Nothing new tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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November Unleaded Gas HUX5
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No surprise at the bounce off the contract highs. I wish this market would calm down a bit so we could trade it again, but that doesn't seem likely for the near future.
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November Heating Oil HOX5
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A corresponding bounce in Heating Oil and a better resistance level to buy from, but I just can't bring myself to do it tomorrow.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Crude held the trendline and has built solid support at 6500. We could sell this support tomorrow, but it's Friday, so I'll wait and see if we can get another crack from the 6380 support instead.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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I'm still looking for a good place to sell the ED from, and while I'm tempted just to jump in anywhere, I'll hold off...but not too much longer.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Nice range today for daytraders, but nothing that we can do with it.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Of course the NAS mirrors the DOW and also had a big range. RSI is pointing higher, so we might see a testpoint develop in a day or two.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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E-mini traders would have had fun with today's range as well. The market's made a sideways pennant, it will be interesting to see if the topside holds, or if we get a bounce.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn continues to stall our short position. I can't say that I'm all that happy about it, but we got a flukie fill on momentum late yesterday. At least the risk isn't great if prices do back up on us. Leave stops where they are for now.
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December Oats OZ5
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Another lackluster day in the oat market. Nothing interesting here tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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Another nice move in rice today as prices came just short of our profit target. I'm running a profit taking order tomorrow as well as bringing stops just under 730. You could also bring them under 732, which was intraday support.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Whew! Caught a break in Meal as prices held resistance and continued lower. We can finally bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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A tough call in Bean Oil as the market gapped our entry by one tick. If you took the trade you're currently long (not a bad thing) and if you passed you're not (obviously). If you did take the trade bring stops below today's low. If prices break here we want to be gone.
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November Soybean SX5
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As expected Beans stopped us at breakeven today. Too bad as the market looked bearish overall. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat's actually beginning to resemble a bull market after a couple of weeks of not going anywhere. I'm going to pass tomorrow, but I hope the 335 - 336 resistance holds and we'll buy next week.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders moved away from our sell order today. You could run the trade again tomorrow, as Feeders are prone to quick reversals, but it is a VERY HIGH RISK trade.

*SELL October Feeder Cattle at 113.95
*Stop 114.70
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 111.05
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle continue to run higher today on a very strong session. I hope to see some hesitation creep into the market tomorrow so we can try to get onboard next week.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Oh-oh, things don't look so good for our hog trade as prices stalled out after getting us a late fill yesterday. Leave stops where they are or bring them below today's low for tomorrow's session.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Good ole copper, alternating sessions again. The market is beginning to trend, but I'm trying to figure out how we can get in, and stay in, with minimal risk.
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December Gold GCZ5
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A bit of a surprise that gold continued to rally today, I thought for sure we'd see a pause after yesterday's big session. We're near the contract high again. Another hesitation would be nice.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Oooo baby baby! This is the kind of day I love to see! Whether you got a fill yesterday or today you'll be smiling from ear to ear as silver prices took off like a rocket!

Bring exit stops as close as you like. I'm using intraday support at 752 to hide my stops below. Profit target at 767.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Ooops...we got a gap, not a bounce at the 1400 resistance line. Technically prices have moved back into buy country...but not tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee looks like it's setting up for another bounce tomorrow, but I'm going to pass for now.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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If I didn't have my *don't trade cotton on a Friday* rule I might look at buying a break above today's high and the resistance at 5450. We've still got some big ranges happening, so we'll need a little luck to ride this out.
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November OJ OJX5
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Sitll watching OJ, but I don't like what I see. Nothing here tomorrow.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Why does sugar have to give me this setup on a Friday? Quite frankly I don't trust this market enough to buy it before the weekend. I do think prices might continue higher as the trend is very strong, but I'm holding off until next week.