Erich's and Tom's Updates for Tuesday, October 11, 2005
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Market Updates for Tuesday, October 11, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Didn't trade today. Run the weekend trade for tomorrow.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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Didn't trade. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Didn't trade today. I didn't suggest this trade over the weekend, but you might want to consider a buy above the 8550 resistance if last week's bounce continues this week.
*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8563
*Stop 8537
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 8675
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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I'm not sure what's up with the Gecko charts as the EC didn't trade today, but the charts appear as though they did. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Didn't trade today. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Didn't trade today. Nothing for tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Didn't trade. Nothing for tomorrow.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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A bit of a rally in the USD today, but nothing serious. I'm holding off until we get closer to the resistance on the contract highs.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Gas whipsawed us today for a $500 loss. Ouch! Not the way I wanted to start the week. I still think we had the right idea here, but I'm holding off tomorrow.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Incredible range in Heating Oil today. I still like it short, but we might be a couple of days before we get a good sell.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Same song for Crude. I want to sell it, but the ranges are killers!
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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Didn't trade today. If you took the trade last week you'll want to bring your stops above Friday's high.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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We might be a little early selling the DOW tomorrow, but I'll short it on a break of last week's support.
*SELL December mini-DOW at 10237
*Stop 10277
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Naturally the NAS is giving us a similar setup and I'll handle it the same way, selling a break of last week's low.
*SELL December mini-NAS at 1547.5
*Stop 91561
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 1506.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Same for the S&P:
*SELL December e-mini S&P at 1184.5
*Stop 1191.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 1161.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Small day for corn, but not a big surprise. I'm just watching tomorrow in anticipation of the WASDE on Wednesday.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats are getting closer to the 158 - 160 range from where I could get a little more bullish.
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November Rice RRX5
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A disappointing day in rice as the market backed up to stop us out at breakeven. I would expect prices to continue lower for the next day or two before we get another buy.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Bean Meal is still making pretty tight ranges, and if it continues to do so for one more day we'll have a good trade going into Wednesday's report.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil found RSI support today as prices fell off to 2325. If it wasn't for the pending report I might look to buy tomorrow, but I think I'll just wait.
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November Soybean SX5
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We got filled in our Bean short today as prices just barely found our sell order. I hate to get filled this way, but that's what we got. Leave exit stops where they are and keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat made a tight range today, which is to be expected with the WASDE due on Wednesday. I'll run the buy order again, but only because I don't think the market will rally enough to fill it.
*BUY December Wheat at 349 1/4
*Stop 344 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MEATS
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November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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I still can't used to Feeders strength. I wish this market would reset itself a bit so we could get a better buy signal.
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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Cattle has built a nice resistance line from last week, and while I'm reluctant to get on board I will buy a break above the resistance. As with Feeders, I would be a little more comfortable buying after the market had a chance to regroup. We're up against important long term resistance, so a bounce would not be out of the question.
*BUY December Live Cattle at 9192
*Stop 9137
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 9437
*Approximate Profit Potential: $980 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs didn't come down like I expected; however RSI is at a testpoint so I'll look to buy a break of last week's resistance on the highs.
*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6607
*Stop 6522
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 6992
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1540 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper is looking quite bearish after today's low close. I would like to see this market come down a bit as well so that we can get a better buying price.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold made a stab at our buy order this morning but came up a few ticks short. We can run the buy again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill.
*BUY December Gold at 480.5
*Stop 477.0
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 494.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Silver SIZ5
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Another big day in silver. If gold's weakness continues tomorrow, expect silver to follow suit.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa continue low enough today that we can bring our stops in above today's high. First profit target is support at 1301.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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While I didn't run the coffee trade, it's interesting to note today's range: right between our entry and exit on last week's buy order! Don't you just love this support and resistance stuff!
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Arrrgghhh! Cotton gapped us by a few ticks on the open voiding our trade. I'm upset because after several days, we finally had the market cornered only to miss it by 7 cents!
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ continues to be choppy. I'll run the buy again tomorrow, but I don't expect to get filled.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar rallied again. I certainly don't have my *touch* in this market lately...but in all fairness it hasn't been cooperating either.
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 11, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=3-25 HI=4-09 LO=3-09 CL=4-08
Bonds were closed today for Columbus Day. The above numbers are for Friday. The close Friday at 114-08 has us locked onto the same 114-16 and 114-00 as the opening plays tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.450 HI=.470 LO=.385 CL=.460
ED was closed due to Columbus Day observance. Above numbers are from Friday. Use the TT numbers for guidance tomorrow.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=93 HI=45 LO=80 CL=31
CD closed for Columbus Day. Use the weekend TT numbers for guidance tomorrow.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=97 HI=97 LO=49 CL=67
Closed for Columbus Day. The above numbers are from Friday. Use weekend TT numbers for guidance for tomorrow.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=7.20 HI=0.60 LO=9.10 CL=0.30
We began a very light trading day by selling 646.70 and exiting at 642.10 for $460. We bought 642.50 and exited at 643.00 for $50. We then sold 643.60 and exited at 642.30 for $130. We then bought 642.60 and exited at 645.30 for $270. Next up we sold 644.60 and closed it out at 642.30 for for $230. That trade put us at $1140 for the day. Quittin' time.
The full array from TT for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=9.50 HI=9.50 LO=5.20 CL=8.00
We sold 478.20 on a $10 channel play. I exited at 476.30 picking up $190. I did sell the break of 476 and was stopped out at B/E. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows us a sell.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.70 HI=.55 LO=.50 CL=.66
Concerns about the earthquake in Pakistan impact on cotton processing capacity lifted the market in a big way. We bought 54.60 and exited very soon thereafter at 56.20 picking off $800 in less than a half hour. I'm going to leave this alone for a day or two and let the dust settle.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=70 HI=73 LO=51 CL=56
We sold 1368 and exited at 1356 for $120. I'll stay with the TT numbers again tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.02 3/4 HI=2.02 3/4 LO=2.01 3/4 CL=2.02
Still watching but not much hope on the waiting part. Square pegs into round holes is not my idea of fun and games. Anything done in here right now is really trying to force the issue.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.40 HI=3.41 1/4 LO=3.38 1/4 CL=3.39 3/4
Ok, gang, let's take a shot at playing 3.38 ... let's buy a retest of the 3.38 support that holds and heads north or we'll sell a break below. Stops are back a penny and a quarter.
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