Erich and tom's Updates for Tuesday, October 25, 2005
==================================================
Market Update for Tuesday, October 25, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
"I want to live life as a poor man with lots of money." - Picasso
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The AD continued to honour support today, but I have to say that the RSI hook is making me a bit nervous about tomorrow. There's still not a lot of trend here, but I'll run the trade again tomorrow.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
Not much to report in the Pound today as prices continue to struggle for direction.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD gapped our entry today thereby voiding the trade. We could see rates rally after this "fade" day, but I'm standing aside for tomorrow.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
It's not looking so hot for our sell order as the EC continues to hold up on support. Normally we would have seen a breakout by now, but the market doesn't have much momentum left. We could see a rally as a result but I'm sticking with the trend for now.
*SELL December EuroFX at 119.37
*Stop 119.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.61
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2200 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen tagged us out of the open for a $350 loss. Definitely not the way I wanted to start the week. I still like this market short; however these ranges are getting brutal. I think I'll give it tomorrow off.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso is still quite rangebound and looking for direction. Once the market finds it though, it should be a strong move.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swiss Franc is looking a little stronger again, but the market will need to clear resistance at 7900 before I get more serious about buying.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
Not much to say for the USD either as the market traded within Friday's range. Just watching tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Gas continues to hover around 161 - 162 support. I'm half tempted to sell tomorrow; however I think I'll wait for the market to refresh itself a bit.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Heating Oil took the lead from the energies and fell off today. This market is too far gone for us to catch it now, but we could get a chance in crude.
----------
January Crude Oil CLF6
----------
Crude neared the RSI testpoint today, so we could see a reaction tomorrow as a result. I would look to sell the market below last week's low and cover the trade below today's support. It's a tight trade to say the least, but hopefully the momentum will keep us out of whipsaw range.
*SELL January Crude at 5925
*Stop 5980
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $550 per contract
*Profit Target: 5675
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2500 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
The ED continues to choppy as rates fell off a bit today. I still like the market short and will focus on selling below the 9527 area.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
The Dow got one step closer to our next selling opportunity today as the market traded a little higher. We've got resistance on today's high, but I think the 10450 line could be more influential.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS finds itself at an RSI test today. If the market reverses off of here tomorrow I'll look to sell. A break higher will get me looking to buy.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P also rallied off support today. We could see the market continue higher, but I'll hold off for the moment.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Well whaddaya know, corn finally fell through support! This means we can adjust our stop if you like and bring it above the 202 1/2 - 203 resistance. First profit target is support at 190, but watch out around 195.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats gave us a nice fill on a break through resistance today. You can leave exit stops where they are or bring them in below today's low if you choose.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice is finally giving us a buy signal as RSI is at a testpoint. I will look to buy the market above the 724 - 725 resistance, and cover the trade below intermediate support at 720, but you could use today's low as well.
*BUY November Rice at 725.5
*Stop 718.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1220 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy meal showed us support today, but the market is technically in a downtrend, so I'll wait for confirmation before buying. Likewise if prices trade lower tomorrow it will confirm the downtrend and we can look to sell.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
A typical Bean Oil day as prices gap lower on the open and then fade the rest of the session. It looks like there will be higher prices tomorrow, but I'll wait and see.
----------
January Soybean SF6
----------
Beans are likely to rally tomorrow; however I'm having a tough time putting in a low risk trade with the resistance at 595 just overhead. With a bit of luck the market will hold up here tomorrow and give us another chance Wednesday.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat reversed and headed lower today, which was a bit of a surprise. The downside momentum is definitely building, so if we see a hestiation we'll look to get in short.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
A tiny day in Feeders, but they did trade low enough that we can bring our stops to breakeven if you like. The *ideal* stop placement is still above 115, but I wouldn't blame you for tightening the stops at least a bit. An intermediate stop would be above 114.60.
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Not the best day for our cattle trade, but we're still in the market for the time being. The good news is that a break above our stops at 9030 will mean we're on the wrong side of the trade and it's time to go.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
A big range in Hogs today, but the market didn't find our order. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but I am expecting a bit of a pullback first.
*SELL December Lean Hogs at 5967
*Stop 6015
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 5782
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper was a little tamer today...but not much. If we see another test of support tomorrow then I'll look to buy the market on Wednesday.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
We could sell gold tomorrow, but I'm going to give the market one more day. We might get an RSI test out of the deal as well which would make for a more predictable trade.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
It's really tempting to try and buy silver off the trendline bounce; however we're trading at some pretty significant levels, historically speaking. I think I'll just watch tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Here we go again with cocoa. I'll run the trade from last week tomorrow but it's still a risky trade.
*BUY December Cocoa at 1421
*Stop 1397
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee backed off our buy order today, but that's okay. I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Not what I was expecting for cotton today as the market continued to trade below resistance. I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow, but remember it's a HIGH risk trade.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
I was thinking about buying OJ over the weekend because of the RSI test as well as the hurricane threat. I passed on the trade, but the market is still looking strong. The opening gap would have voided the trade (again) but if we see a bit of resistance off 115.50 I'll look to buy in on Wednesday.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
One more day sugar...then I'll look to buy.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at Admin@OptimusFutures.com
========================================================
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 24, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=3-20 HI=3-24 LO=2-27 CL=3-03
Not to slight our good friends in Florida who are suffering from Wilma but, it could've been much worse than it was. As aresult everyone pretty much moved on the other factors in trying to figure out market movement. The stock market had good news in Bush's selection to succeed Greenspan and without the worries of another catstrophic hurricane hit we were off to the races. Bonds fell back about 3/4 of a point as all the parked pre hurricane money leapt back into the market.
Our idea that -24 might be a good play certainly was. Just didn't give us an early trade to capitalize. Our first trade was the sell of -14 which we exited at -03 for 11 ticks, $343. Bonds bounced back to -09 and failed, I sold -07 and exited at 112-31 for 8 more, $250.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.400 HI=.415 LO=.380 CL=.390
We remain short from 95.450. I now have the stop at 95.420, just a tick above today's high. We made it down to .380 and then bounced. It would appear we are respecting .370. If we don't get thru 37 in the next few sessions I'll look to start challenging the market to come get me with a squeeze.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=39 HI=55 LO=00 CL=36
We moved much lower in the overnight. By the time t=he RTH session opened we were trading near 8400. Nothing for us today. For tomorrow we'll stay on the same numbers at 8460. In addition we'll add 8400 and play it either way ... sell a break below or buy a retest that fails to break lower.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=75 HI=33 LO=61 CL=03
About 20 minutes before the open of the RTH session we were trading 7766/68. We just missed a nice one. SF ran all the way up to 7833. I considered that a failure at 40 and sold 30. As we broke 7800 I rolled to 7803. It tried to go lower once again and failed. This time I moved the stop to the other side of 7800 at 7799. They stopped us at 7801 for $362
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=5.20 HI=8.80 LO=4.40 CL=8.60
I missed the first increment of the move. It took off like a rocket and left me in the dust. I sold 641.50 and exited at 642.50 losing $100. I then sold 641.60 and exited at .70 for a $10 loss. I bought 642.60 and exited at B/E after the big failure at 643.70. I sold 641.70 and exited at 639.40 for $230. Next up I bought 642.40 and exited 643.30 on another good sized failure picking up $90. I then bought 642.40 and out at 644.70 for $230. The day then turned into nothing but 643/645 chop. I bid then good day. Of course that means I missed the big $500 move late in the session. No worries. Total on the day, $440.
All the numbers tomorrow
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=7.00 HI=0.90 LO=5.60 CL=7.00
Nothing for us today. It actually did throw us a sell very late in the day. Too late for me. $10 channel tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.35 HI=.65 LO=.75 CL=.03
I bought 54.56 and got slammed ... out at 54.25 losing $150. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=70 HI=12 LO=69 CL=08
A little payback for the shabby way the russell and Cotton treated us ... yeah sure. We bought 1372. It went right to our target at 1410 and failed I saw the potential and put in an exit limit at 1409 and got it. $370.
Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.01 1/4 HI=2.01 1/2 LO=1.99 1/4 CL=1.99 1/2
Watching only. You know Brenda Lee, Spike Lee and Peggy Lee ... well, meet UG Lee.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.28 HI=3.29 1/2 LO=3.22 1/2 CL=3.23 1/4
It blew right by us, not a chance for the sell. Dang. I'll take a shot tomorrow at buying a retest of 3.22 1/2 if we fail and turn back north at that point. Penny and a half on the stop.
<< Home