"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, September 14, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, September 14, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=5-30 HI=6-20 LO=5-30 CL=6-10

We bought 116-03 on the early rally. Predictably if you've followed my theory about -00 and -16, it failed just shy of -16 at -13. Say what you will, it was not a failure of -13 it WAS a failure of -16. I'm out at -11 for 8 ticks, $250. Look at what happened next ... bam, bam, bam, bam ... 5 attempts to break back below -08 without success. What do think we should do? Why, buy -08 of course. I bought 116-09 and exited at -15 as it failed at -16 again for 7 more, $218. This time the failure was about the same distance above -16 as was the earlier short fall failure at -13. Hmmmm. Funny how that works, isn't it?

I sold at -14 and was stopped out at -15. I had the stop at -17 but cancel replaced it because the message was pretty clear after 25 minutes. Sold -14 a second time, which I exited at -08 for 6 more, $187.

The close at 116-10 has us watching for opportunities at 116-16 or 116-00 with a second tier interest in -08. May we do as well as today.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.785 HI=.845 LO=.780 CL=.825

They got us. Stopped out at 95.805 for a $287 gain. What I never get tired of seeing is how technical this market is, how respectful of S&R it is. Just look where we settled today. 95.825. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

If we get a failure of .825 tomorrow, I will sell it with a stop at .835. I am going to forego buying until 95.850 is broken.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=40 HI=84 LO=39 CL=77

I'll stay with the numbers from TT with one addition. 8440 is a bit light in the strength dept. but I will give it a go tomorrow only by selling a break back below that level. They gave us nothing today.
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4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFU5 O=34 HI=38 LO=20 CL=27

We didn't need to worry about the added numbers either as the Swiss did another gap down open. Made mincemeat of my look for a bounce back toward 8000, didn't it?

eWe move on, or in this case, downward. We closed at 7927, I'll sell a break below 7920 with a 27 stop and a 5 move to B/E. We'll look at 7850 as target. I'll also play if they give us a bounce back to 7950 by selling the failure there with a stop at 7957 and a B/E roll at 7943 or so.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=3.30 HI=3.30 LO=5.30 CL=7.80

I sold 681.50 and exited at 679.10 ... yes, "once broken theory". We took 'em for $240. I then sold 679.70 which I exited at 676.20 for $350. Next, we bought 676.60 and bailed at 677.80 hanging on to $120 of our accumulated profit. I could've manged this one better than I did. In retrospect I think there were some signs that had I read them better I should have been gone by about 678.30 or 40. See if you can see 'em. I bought 680.40 and bailed at 680.80 ... thank you "OBT". Next up, a sell at 679.80 and an exit at ... all together now ... 677.10, for $270. Done for the day with a total of $970.

I have neither fundamental nor technical support for the following theory but I believe with all my heart and soul that thousand dollar days are way cool. Cool as Clarence "Gatemouth" Brown ... and he was the coolest of the cool. Sadly "Gate" passed way Saturday of a broken heart in Texas, where he was born 81 years ago. One of the all-time. all-time great musicians who transcended blues, jazz and country ... if you ever heard him play anything you'd never ever forget the unique sound ... "Gate" lived for many years in Slidell, LA. just outside New Orleans. He was evacuated by family and taken to his brother's home in Orange, Texas. His home in Slidell was destroyed by Katrina. It broke his heart. God speed, Clarence.

No new numbers.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=2.40 HI=3.40 LO=8.30 CL=0.00

It was only a matter of time ...Sold 452.60. on the break of 453. We rode it to an exit at 449.00 for $360. I feel better. $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.71 HI=.85 LO=.55 CL=.80

I bought 50.60 and bailed at 50.40 losing $100. Same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will also buy a failed retest at 49.50 as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=76 HI=82 LO=40 CL=45

Big weakness. Tomorrow I'll play 1438 buying a retest that fails to punch lower as it turns north. I will also sell abreak below. Stops are 1433 and 1443 respectively.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.10 1/4 HI=2.10 1/2 LO=2.08 1/2 CL=2.10

Ditto ... Yikes ... dead long walking. There is nothing to do until the structure builds or we return to 2.16 1/2 where I will buy.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.20 HI=3.29 LO=3.18 CL=3.26 1/2

I bought 3.26 1/2 and bailed at 3.28 1/2. We left some on the table. Same TT numbers for tomorrow plus we'll play 3.30 either way. Penny and a quarter, stops and rolls. Scalp for now.