"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 22, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 22, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=5-17 HI=5-29 LO=5-16 CL=5-23

We were only successful in getting 1 trade off today. We bought 1 at 115-21 and got stopped out at -23 for 2 ticks. From there the bonds pretty much went to sleep. We floated around between -21 and -27. I tried to buy -21 once and couldn't get it. Pretty ugly day.

The close at 115-23 has us on the trail of 115-16 and 116-00 for openers.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.720 HI=.735 LO=.715 CL=.715

Yesterday I did get stopped out of the trade, exiting at 95.745 for a small profit. I didn't mind so much holding the trade into the FOMC meeting with the stop as close as I had it. That said, holding a trade with a short stop and initiating a trade are 2 different animals. I sat out the rest of the day once stopped.

Look what the ED did this morning ... bounced right back to levels pre FOMC. I sold .725 again today with a stop at 95.735. You can look for a press back to or near that level and sell a failure.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=94 HI†10 LO=49 CL=67

By now, you've noticed I forgot to change the headings for CD and SF. The numbers were DEC but the label said Sept. Bad cop, no donut!

The market is showing us some weakness but nothing approaching the kind of break you know is coming. We did have about a 60 point range today considering high and low but only about 27 points looking at open and close. Keep the TT numbers in mind but we'll also sell aretest of 8600 that fails as it heads lower. The stop is 8603. If you're a little less risk adverse than I, you might consider 86111 or 13
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=39 HI=45 LO=17 CL=23

We worked our way down to retest 7920. Volume was quite light and the price flow after the retest blocked our execution effort. Nothing done. Stay on the same numbers from TT.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=2.20 HI=2.90 LO=1.40 CL=1.70

We missed a biggie on Tuesday. We'd have been positioned perfectly for the post FOMC drop ... this time. Maybe not the next 10 times. Standing aside was the right thing to do ... it was hard to watch that $1100 move though.

Wednesday, I sold 657.70 and out at 656.40 for $130. I bought 658.40 and exited at 660.50 for $210. We then sold 657.80 on a lucky fill and exited at 655.40 for $240. We then bought 656.50 and exited at 657.70 for $120. I sold 657.30 and out at 653.60 for $370. We then bought 654.40 and exited at 656.50 for another $210. Our final trade of the day was a sell at 653.80 which we exited at 652.70 closing out with $110.

We'll add 651 to the mix of numbers in the array from TT.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=0.20 HI=3.60 LO=9.80 CL=2.60

More power. Still no buy for me. Sells only off the $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.00 LO=.11 CL=.98

After clipping them for 100 points yesterday we came right back and bought 51.55 after the big gap up this morning. Had today's gap not been so big I think I might have carried this trade home for the night. I bailed at 51.75, for $100.

Same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will also buy a failed retest at 49.50 as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37. I'll be looking hard at 52.00
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=85 HI=95 LO=51 CL=52

Nice fake out. The softness continues. "bout time for a civil war or something. I'll stick with the TT numbers
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.07 1/4 HI=2.07 1/2 LO=2.05 CL=2.06 1/2

I'm very tempted to buy another retest of 2.06 anything after today's almost mirror image of yesterday's trade ... and the befoe that and the day before that ... I'm also very suspicious. I'll sit tight yet another day.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.21 HI=3.25 1/2 LO=3.20 CL=3.25 1/4

I'll stay with y numbers from TT. We got another nice bounce off 3.20 today. I'll play it if they give us another one of those.