"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 23, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 23, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=5-17 HI=5-29 LO=5-16 CL=5-23

This has been one horrible week in the Bonds, the worst week stretch I can remember in a very long time.

I began the day selling 115-28 and got stopped at 115-31 for a 3 tick loss. Sold -28 a second time and was stopped at -25 for plus 3. We ended the day with a push. The close today was 115-28. We need to see a 2 ticks up or more befoe selling -28. We are focused on 116-00 and 115-16 for tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.775 HI=.780 LO=.720 CL=.730

Be careful of what you wish for ... I moved out from the front month to find volatility ... well, I found it today ...ouch. I'd sold .725 yesterday and had my stop at .735. I got stopped at .775 on the opening gap up for a $125 loser. I sold 95.775 in the next breath. It dropped right back to near yesterday's close, bounced back to .760 and then failed again to close at .730. I exited the trade near end of day at 95.725 canceling out the $125 loss with a $125 winner. A little balancing of the books play.

Tomorrow I will be poised to sell a break of .725 or buy a break above .730.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=02 HI=02 LO=57 CL=66

We sold 8598 on the break of 8600, rolled to B/E at 90. We had a number of 5-10 point swings from candle to candle. When we printed 85 I rolled to 91 and was stopped out at 92 making a whole $60. We ticked back up to 8600 and I again sold 8598. More wild swings between candles so I tightened up the management. I again rolled to 91 on the break of 90 and got stopped out at 93 this time banking $50. Again the market tested 8600 and I sold 8595. We hit 75 and I rolled to 81 only to be stopped out at 87 picking up $80 this time. I said bu-bye for the day. Just too crazy to be exposing yourself to risk in this environment.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=28 HI=28 LO=65 CL=75

I sold 7913 off the 20 break. I made all the rolls detailed in TT as we headed down to 7865. When it broke 70 I rolled the stop to 71 and got hit at 75 picking up $380.

We settled at 7875. I will sell the break of 75 tomorrow with a stop at 7881. I will also buy a failure there as it breaks above 7878 with a stop at 7871.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=1.60 HI=6.40 LO=5.70 CL=4.10

Nice timing in adding 651 yesterday. We sold 650.60. As we passed thru 647 I rolled my stop to 647.10 and got the "boot" at 647.50 for $250. Minutes later we bought 647.50 and rode it to 650.90 where I'd placed a limit order believing it was going to return to 651. Picked up another $240. I bought 650.80 and knew immediately we were on the wrong side. I got out at 651.90 losing $110. Next up we bought 651.30 and exited at 652.80 for $150. I sold 650.70 and bailed at 651.80 dropping $110 again. I sold 650.50 and out at 648.00 for $250. I missed the rest of the day due to meetings. Hopefully you continued on as our numbers provided a couple of pretty good $150-$200 trades later on.

The full array from TT tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=6.00 HI=6.30 LO=6.80 CL=0.30

Big gap down on the open kept us sidelined. Sells only off the $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.00 LO=.11 CL=.98

I sold 51.40. It was tough to get on board with the early extreme volatility. We went to 50.50 exactly and turned on a dime. I jumped out at 50.70 for 70 points, $350. I tried to buy something near 50.50 and again tried to get long at 51.00 ... I missed them both. Tight wads! I finally got one by 'em, buying at 51.10. We made a run to the 80's and I jumped out at 51.70 for 60 points, $300.

We closed at 51.97 so same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will still buy a failed retest at 49.50 if we see it as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37. 52.00 is the obvious focus initially for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=54 HI=60 LO=37 CL=42

How low can you go? A peek at the weekly chart shows us 1340 is a very critical area. Then the last line of defense comes at 1320. I'm going to take a shot at buying a bounce off 1340 with a 1337 stop. If I get filled above 1350 I'll place the stop at 1343.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.07 HI=2.10 LO=2.06 1/2 CL=2.08 1/4

I'll buy a break above 2.10 tomorrow. The usual penny and a quarter stop and rolls.

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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.28 HI=3.34 1/2 LO=3.27 CL=3.32 1/4

I feel like I kinda' dropped the ball on this one. We should've been there at 3.20. I'll sell the failure of 3.32 tomorrow. I'll also buy the break above 3.32 but I'm am very suspicious of that number right now. I think the "most likely" scenario is a failure but I'll do either.