"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 2, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 2, 2005
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I got about half way through writing this update when I reached a conclusion. I will not trade any market tomorrow. There is just too much going on. Take a day off, relax and we'll be back with a vengeance come Monday.

If you have open positions it's OK to keep them on if you choose. If that be your decision make sure you have tight protections in with placed stops. Any thing questionable in your mind ... close it. Our approaches, methods and concepts work best when market conditions are most normal ... this is any thing but ...
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=7-26 HI=8-10 LO=7-18 CL=7-28

An uncharacteristic choppy day in Bonds. I tried twice to sell breaks at -00 but couldn't get a fill. About 10:30 CDT I finally got short at 117-30. Bonds moved swiftly to 117-21 and I was taken out at 117-23 for 7 ticks. About 11:25 I sold again, this time at -27. Bonds moved to lower hitting 117-118. It was very obvious this run was over so I bailed at 117-21 picking up 6 ticks. That was it for the day. Left the table with 13 ticks, $406 on max risk of $187.

Lots of nervousness in many markets for a variety of reasons. Lots of really wicked stories floating about. We need to very careful and management intensive with all trades right now. No trades tomorrow.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.072 HI=.210 LO=.070 CL=.205

A very strong day higher. The financial markets and interest rate sensitive issues such as currencies rocketed higher today on a pervasive belief further interest increases are all but dead. The FED WILL raise them again at the next meeting I believe. We are setting up for a big swift correction lower.

I'm going to put the ED on hold until the weekend at which time I will, most likely, either recommend a switch to Dec 05 or March 06.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=27 HI=74 LO=13 CL=55

A strong continuation of higher prices in the CD. Nothing to do here today. I will not trade tomorrow.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=89 HI=92 LO=89 CL=84

The resolution came in the night as the US Dollar was hammered in European and Far East trading. We opened with a gap well above our 8000 target. Nothing done. No trades tomorrow.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.80 HI=1.90 LO=5.10 CL=8.10

We opened the day with a buy at 668.40 which we exited at 670.20 having achieved the target. We picked up $180. Next we sold 669.60 which I exited at 666.30 banking $330. I then bought 668.40 and exited at 670.20 pocketing another $180. We next sold 669.40 which I bailed on at 670.10 for a loss of $70. I then sold 669.40 again and exited at 666.20 for $320. I couldn't maintain my concentration any longer and quit for the day. We might have missed 1 additional trade ... no biggie.

No trades tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=0.00 HI=9.50 LO=0.00 CL=6.50

Gold opened right on 440 never looked back and never gave us a shot at an entry. NO TRADE Tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.00 HI=.10 LO=.25 CL=.94

I sold 49.45 and exited by choice at 48.50 after we tested 48.30 picking up 95 points, $475. No trades tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=14 HI=00 LO=10 CL=96

I bought 1433 and was stopped out at 1427 losing $60. I bought 33 again about a half an hour later and exited at 1480 for $470. No trades tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.17 1/2 HI=2.22 1/2 LO=2.16 3/4 CL=2.22 1/4

A nickel jump in corn ... we'll figure out a course of action over the weekend. No trades tomorrow.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.18 HI=3.23 1/2 LO=3.17 1/2 CL=3.22 1/2

A turn around. Does it have sufficient stuff to make a play higher still? We'll try to figure it out ove rthe weekend. No trades tomorrow.