Market Update for Friday, September 9, 2005
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Market Update for Friday, September 9, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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I've been reluctant to do anything with the AD as the market has been quite thin. It is picking up volume however, as traders switch from the soon to expire September contract. Nothing new for tomorrow, but we might be able to put on a trade next week.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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I was hoping the Pound would continue lower; however today the market made a stab at resistance before backing off. Now that we've got a couple of hits on resistance we know where to buy from in case we see a reversal tomorrow.
*BUY December British Pound at 184.43
*Stop 183.77
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $412 per contract
*Profit Target: 186.77
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1462 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The Canadian Dollar is also trading at the 8500 resistance area; however I'm not as inspired to buy the market from here tomorrow. In fact I would like to see lower rates tomorrow so as to reinforce the resistance line and make for a more predictable entry when it does break.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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Still holding out for a test of the 124 support line. Let's see if we get it tomorrow.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Did you notice the divergence in RSI and Yen rates? The Yen is dropping but RSI is heading higher. This is actually happening in quite a few markets right now and is a sign of instability, so I'll hold off on the Yen for now. Look for a drop to support at 9100 as a likely target.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso continues to flirt with support as RSI gets closer still to a testpoint. I'll run the same order again tomorrow, but if the Peso is still waffling we'll tighten it up over the weekend.
*SELL December Mexican Peso at 91.375
*Stop 91.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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A good day in the SF, not because we got a fill, but because we didn't. You see resistance and support did what they were supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade...which is not easy to do in a big ranging market like the Swiss Franc.
We'll run the same trade again tomorrow. I like the numbers a lot. I'll like them even better if we can avoid a gap or a whipsaw.
*BUY December Swiss Franc at 8153
*Stop 8133
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 8273
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The pullback in the USD continued today. We've got resistance just above the market around 8750 which might come into play tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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This is the best resistance we've seen in this market for a while. Did you notice the double hit on the 207 high? How about the support at 197? Close enough to 196.25 for me, given the current market circumstances that is.
I'll look to buy Gas on a break above 207 tomorrow as I suspect prices might find support. As always this is a HIGH risk trade because of the huge price swings that can occur here. Because of the potentially large risk we're using both side of 207 to enter and cover the trade. This helps keep the risk amount down, but also makes for a very risky trade.
*BUY October Unleaded Gas at 207.65
*Stop 206.30
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $567 per contract
*Profit Target: 219
*Approximate Profit Potential: $4767 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil is acutally looking a little bearish today as RSI broke the lower trendline. Technically prices moved into bear territory as well, but I can't bring myself to sell just yet.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude continued to hunt for support today as prices had yet another big day. Today's session brings the 6600 resistance back into play which I will use to enter a long position tomorrow. We've got intermediate support at 6560 which we can use to cover the trade. First profit target is resistance at 6870 - 6880.
*BUY October Crude at 6605
*Stop 6560
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 6870
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2650 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED continued lower today bringing us very close to an RSI testpoint. This is our cue to put together a buy order in case we see a bounce off support tomorrow. I will look to buy above the 9587 resistance and cover the trade at the intermediate resistance at 9582. I would have preferred the support at 9580; however that would have left too much at risk.
*BUY June Eurodollar at 9587.5
*Stop 9582.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 9509.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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I still think the indices are inflated and due for a reversal; however all three of the markets are in an uptrend and as such we need to look for a buy. The DOW gave us a bit of a hiccup today, but I'll hold out for a lower session tomorrow as I don't want to hold this one over the weekend.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Ditto for the NAS.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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And the S&P.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn behaved itself today sticking to the support and resistance numbers. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but would really like to see more of the same. There's a WASDE report due out Monday, so I don't think traders are ready to commit until then.
*BUY December Corn at 224 1/4
*Stop 220 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 236 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
OR
*SELL December Corn at 214 1/4
*Stop 217 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 204 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats calmed down a bit since yesterday and with the WASDE report on Monday I think they'll probably behave tomorrow as well.
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November Rice RRX5
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No luck as Rice continued to run away from us today. We'll probably get our hiccup tomorrow, but it might be a little too late.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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I'm not crazy about selling Meal going into the weekend; however I want to be there if prices make a big move. The WASDE report on Monday will probably keep a lid on the market until then - I hope.
*SELL December Bean Meal at 183.7
*Stop 186.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 171.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1240 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil headed lower through support finding our sell order today. There is enough room to bring stops in a bit if you choose. I would probably move them above today's high, but on the other side of 2300 (maybe 2301 or 2303).
First profit target is 2141.
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November Soybean SX5
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Beans didn't commit today like Bean Oil did, and like Meal I'm a little leery about running this trade tomorrow; however with the WASDE looming I hope that prices will behave themselves.
*SELL November Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 598 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 548 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $225 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wild day in wheat as prices took a hard bounce off support. I'll hold off bracketing the trade right now and will stick with the sell, but I'd love to see resistance hold tomorrow, that would almost make this too easy to trade come Monday.
Pretty please?
*SELL December Wheat at 315 3/4
*Stop 318 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 305
*Approximate Profit Potential: $537 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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There go Feeder's again. I'm not having a lot of luck getting a *feel* for this market lately, but at least it didn't lose us any money either. ;-)
I honestly didn't think this market could generate that kind of momentum at these prices. We'll likely see a hesitation tomorrow which could give us another chance to buy.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle were a little more subdued than Feeders today, but also continued higher. We're back in the 8400 resistance area, so we'll see if we get a bounce here tomorrow (which I think we might).
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs continued higher today and while we're not testing the support I was looking for we have to take what the market is giving and get ready to buy a break above the 6350 resistance. I'm placing my buy order a little further away, because it is Friday and I don't want a bad fill going into the weekend.
*BUY October Lean Hogs at 63.725
*Stop 62.975
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $320 per contract
*Profit Target: 67.875
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1660 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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We nailed copper's support today, didn't we? If we get a bounce here tomorrow I'll look to buy on Monday.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Nuts. Gold ran up early and broke resistance, finding our buy order, only to drop off a few minutes later and hit our exit stops for a $340 loss. Not what I wanted to happen! I still think we're on the right side of this market, but I'll give it the day off tomorrow and lick my wounds.
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September Silver SIU5
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Back in familiar territory as silver held up near the 695 support today. RSI is hooking and would suggest that we will see lower prices tomorrow, but I don't trust silver enough to take a new position on a Friday, but that's me.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Overbought or not, cocoa prices continued higher today. I'll hold off buying the market on Friday but we definitely need to look for another buy.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's hesitation almost looks like we will see a bounce tomorrow. If we do I might look at another sell for next week.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton is giving us a chance to buy above the 5285 high today; however I don't trust this market on Friday either. Monday is the Cotton report as well, so we could something crazy happen tomorrow. Call me old fashioned, but I'm standing aside.
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ finally broke support today and found our sell order. It was a good session and we can bring exit stops in a bit, above today's high, if you choose. First profit target is support at 8515.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar keeps struggling with resistance which reinforces my thought that a reversal is in the making. I'm not about to put my money where my mouth is...at least not tomorrow.
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